Emerging Markets Economics Update Three reasons not to fear Fed balance sheet normalisation There are still plenty of unanswered questions about the Fed’s plans to reduce the size of its balance sheet, but there are at least three reasons to think that it won’t cause a major dislocation in... 25th May 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM markets fall, but economic fallout should be limited Political developments in the US and Brazil have led to sizeable falls in EM currencies and equities today but the economic implications for EMs are likely to be limited. Even in Brazil itself, it’s... 18th May 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Apr.) Our Tracker shows that net capital outflows from emerging markets picked up in April. Outflows will probably accelerate further later this year, but they are likely to remain subdued by recent... 10th May 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Latest commodity price falls don’t alter economic outlook for EMs The broad fall in commodity prices this week has weighed on EM commodity currencies, but it doesn’t do much to alter the economic outlook either for EM commodity producers or EM commodity consumers. 5th May 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM survey data overstating the pace of recovery The EM business and consumer surveys seem to have overstated the strength of the hard EM activity figures over the past year or so. That said, the fall in the EM manufacturing PMI in April provides... 4th May 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing recovery softens at the start of Q2 April’s PMI data suggest that the recovery in emerging market manufacturing lost a bit of steam at the start of Q2. Nonetheless, the survey is still consistent with continued expansion, albeit at a... 2nd May 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM credit divergences should soon start to narrow The broad stability in EM credit growth in recent quarters masks a large divergence between individual countries, with an acceleration in lending in China offset by a contraction in Brazil and Russia... 19th April 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Mar.) Our Tracker shows that capital outflows from emerging markets essentially ceased in March. Outflows will probably pick up again later this year, but they are likely to remain weak by recent standards. 18th April 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Political risks don’t warrant major growth revisions – yet… Political risks in some parts of the emerging world have escalated in recent weeks, but not to the extent that we are marking down our near-term growth forecasts. 11th April 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Five non-consensus calls on EMs Earlier this week we published our latest Emerging Markets Economic Outlook, which outlined our core macroeconomic and financial market forecasts for 2017-19. In this Update, we summarise five key... 6th April 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing ends Q1 on a strong note March’s PMIs suggest manufacturing in the emerging world rounded off the quarter strongly. In particular, conditions improved in Brazil, Turkey and India. The main exception was Korea, where business... 3rd April 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Will EMs pick up the free-trade mantle? There is growing speculation that the largest EMs might step up to fill the void left by the US in the event of a protectionist shift under President Trump. However, there are good reasons why intra... 21st March 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Feb.) Our tracker suggests that EM capital outflows slowed to a three-year low in February. Outflows will probably increase over the coming months, but they are likely to remain subdued by recent standards. 20th March 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM central banks unfazed by the Fed Investors are now united in the belief that the Fed will raise interest rates this week, but we doubt that central banks in the emerging world will necessarily follow suit. Indeed, in several major... 13th March 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing still going strong The latest batch of PMI data suggest that, partly thanks to stronger external demand, conditions in manufacturing sectors across the emerging world continued to improve in February. 1st March 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Fed & EMs: Nothing to see here… The lack of any meaningful reaction in EM currency markets to increased speculation that the Fed could raise interest rates this month appears to reflect three factors: a growing recognition by... 1st March 2017 · 1 min read
