Emerging Markets Economics Update EM dollar debt – a primer The decision by the Fed to begin the process of balance sheet reduction this month – coupled with the heavy hints that a December rate hike remains on the table – has led several clients to ask about... 4th October 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing still in decent shape The latest Markit PMI surveys suggest that conditions in emerging market manufacturing eased a touch at the end of Q3, but remain robust compared with the past few years. 2nd October 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Drop in CA deficits take EMs out the firing line There are several reasons why the gradual tightening of monetary policy in developed markets is unlikely to cause major problems for EMs, but one of the most important is that current account deficits... 26th September 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Time to worry about rising EM sovereign debt? The fact that aggregate EM sovereign debt has now surpassed $11.7trn has grabbed a few headlines but several factors – notably the increase in EM GDP over the past decade – mean that fiscal risks are... 19th September 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Aug.) Net capital outflows from emerging markets slowed a bit in August, but the big picture is that they remained low by recent standards. Portfolio inflows weakened from the highs recorded earlier in Q3. 8th September 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing still going strong in Q3 Last month’s PMIs suggest that conditions in EM manufacturing sectors improved in Q3, supported by most of the major BRIC economies. 1st September 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Jul.) Total EM capital outflows remained pretty stable in July. Net portfolio inflows picked up a bit, though more recent figures suggest that this may have reversed in August. 18th August 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing recovery soft at the start of Q3 July’s PMI data remain consistent with a continued expansion in EM manufacturing, albeit at a pace that is down slightly from the highs seen at the start of the year. 1st August 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Fed and ECB not the only games in town for EMs EM bond markets have, for the most part, shrugged off the rise in developed market bond yields since the end of June. This strengthens our view that policy normalisation in developed markets is... 20th July 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Jun.) Our Capital Flows Tracker shows that net capital outflows from emerging markets remained subdued in the first half of 2017. We expect that outflows will stay low over the coming quarters. 17th July 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM credit bubble is now (mostly) a China story The past couple of weeks have seen renewed concerns about credit risks in emerging economies. The key point that has been missed in much of the analysis, however, is that credit bubbles have begun to... 11th July 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Winners and losers from the latest drop in oil Within the EM world, the main beneficiaries of the recent drop in oil prices are Korea, India, Turkey, and South Africa, while the biggest losers are the Gulf States, Russia and Nigeria. That being... 22nd June 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Revisiting EM links with China The EMs with the deepest trade ties to China have, unsurprisingly, benefitted most from the economy’s rebound since the start of 2016. These countries lie mostly in Asia. It follows that these are the... 21st June 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (May) Our Capital Flows Tracker shows that net capital outflows from emerging markets stabilised in May. We expect that they will remain subdued over the remainder of the year. 12th June 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update More to structural EM weakness than investment behaviour Our view that EMs have entered a period of structurally weaker growth has started to become the mainstream, but there is a tendency to misdiagnose this as solely a problem of deficient investment... 5th June 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing recovery loses a bit more steam May’s PMI data point to a further softening in the recovery of emerging market manufacturing. Nonetheless, the survey still points to expansion, just at a slower pace than at the start of the year. 1st June 2017 · 1 min read
