Emerging Markets Economics Update Trump and the fallout for EMs in five key points We’ve written lots over the past two weeks about Donald Trump’s victory and the implications for EMs. While much remains uncertain, in this Update we draw out five early takeaways. 23rd November 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Trumpflation, the dollar and EM balance sheets The jump in the dollar caused by the so-called “Trumpflation” trade is unlikely to cause widespread or systemic problems in the emerging world, but several EMs do look vulnerable. The most exposed are... 16th November 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Picking apart the post-Trump sell-off The sell-off in EM markets following Donald Trump’s victory appears to have been driven by a general rise in investor risk aversion, rather than specific concerns over a shift towards greater trade... 11th November 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Oct.) Our Tracker shows that total capital outflows from the emerging world declined a little last month, and were barely a third of the size seen earlier in the year. The sell-off in EM financial markets... 11th November 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update First thoughts on the US election fallout The sell-off in EM financial markets in the wake of Donald Trump’s victory in the US election has been swift but policymakers in most countries will look through the initial volatility – only central... 9th November 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing makes a strong start to Q4 Manufacturing in the emerging world was at its strongest in more than two years in October, according to the latest PMI surveys, with all the major EM economies seeing a substantial pick-up in the... 1st November 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What to make of the surge in EM foreign currency debt sales Sovereign foreign currency bond sales by emerging markets could top $100bn this year although, outside a couple of vulnerable countries, it seems unlikely that these will cause future debt problems. 17th October 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Sep.) Our Tracker shows that total capital outflows from the emerging world eased a little last month, and they remain well below the levels seen earlier in the year. 14th October 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing recovery continued in Q3 The EM manufacturing PMIs for September suggest that industry across the emerging world performed better in Q3 than in Q2. That said, the index remains consistent with relatively weak growth in... 3rd October 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Tight fiscal policy to stifle recoveries in commodity producers The majority of governments in commodity-producing EMs are still in the process of adjusting to the new reality of lower commodity prices and are being forced to cut spending. Accordingly, while... 20th September 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Market Consumer Snapshot (Q3 2016) Emerging market consumer spending growth appears to have bottomed out in recent quarters, but the subsequent recovery will be slow going. While the immediate outlook is brightest in Emerging Asia and... 13th September 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM economies now less vulnerable to US rate hikes The sudden sell-off in EMs that started on Friday, triggered by hawkish comments from the head of the Boston Fed Eric Rosengreen, points to a turbulent period ahead for EM financial markets as the... 12th September 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Aug.) Our Tracker shows that total capital outflows from the emerging world edged up to around $42bn in August from $38bn in July, but they remain well below their peak at the turn of the year. And inflows... 8th September 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing recovery pauses in August The EM manufacturing PMI dropped back in August, but we aren’t too concerned: the fall was relatively modest and the survey remains well above its level a few months ago. What’s more, there are... 1st September 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM industry strengthens at the start of Q3 The sharp rise in the aggregate EM PMI in July suggests that after a brief pause in Q2, the recovery in EM industry resumed at the start of the third quarter. The improvement was driven largely by... 1st August 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update “Premature de-industrialisation”: red light or red herring? There is some evidence to suggest that countries are reaching “peak” industrialisation at lower rates of income than in the past. However, this doesn’t explain the recent slowdown in EM GDP growth... 25th July 2016 · 1 min read