Emerging Markets Economics Update Will EMs pick up the free-trade mantle? There is growing speculation that the largest EMs might step up to fill the void left by the US in the event of a protectionist shift under President Trump. However, there are good reasons why intra... 21st March 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Feb.) Our tracker suggests that EM capital outflows slowed to a three-year low in February. Outflows will probably increase over the coming months, but they are likely to remain subdued by recent standards. 20th March 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM central banks unfazed by the Fed Investors are now united in the belief that the Fed will raise interest rates this week, but we doubt that central banks in the emerging world will necessarily follow suit. Indeed, in several major... 13th March 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing still going strong The latest batch of PMI data suggest that, partly thanks to stronger external demand, conditions in manufacturing sectors across the emerging world continued to improve in February. 1st March 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Fed & EMs: Nothing to see here… The lack of any meaningful reaction in EM currency markets to increased speculation that the Fed could raise interest rates this month appears to reflect three factors: a growing recognition by... 1st March 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Jan.) Aggregate Emerging Market net capital outflows slowed sharply in January. This appears to be partially due to large – but temporary – inflows into the Czech Republic. But it also reflected the... 16th February 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM dollar debt – a primer The recent strength of the US dollar has prompted several questions from clients about dollar debt burdens in emerging economies. In this Update, we outline the key points and provide a comprehensive... 27th January 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Few EMs at risk from a major drop in US FDI US foreign direct investment flows into most major EMs aren’t particularly large and a significant portion are concentrated in the mining and financial sectors. These are unlikely to be disrupted even... 23rd January 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What to watch for in Trump’s first 100 days Within the realms of economic policy, two concerns in particular are likely to occupy both EM governments and investors in the early days of President Trump’s administration: the direct effects on EM... 20th January 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Dec.) Total capital outflows from Emerging Markets (EMs) remained large at the end of last year. Portfolio inflows into EM bond and equity markets, however, remained resilient following the US election... 17th January 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Who’s afraid of a strong dollar? The Mexican peso and the Turkish lira have come under further pressure over the past couple of days, but the more striking thing is how resilient other EM currencies have been in the face of a... 11th January 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Unpacking “political risk” in EMs The tendency to bracket all EM political risk under the banner of “rising populism” conceals important nuances and prevents a proper understanding of the economic consequences of the risks that are... 5th January 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update US “border tax” and the implications for EM currencies The switch to a so-called “border adjustment” system of corporate tax that has been proposed by US House Republicans could in theory lead to a weakening of EM currencies against the dollar, but in... 4th January 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing ends 2016 on a strong note Manufacturing in the emerging world remained strong at the end of last year according to the latest PMIs. Conditions in China and Russia, in particular, continued to improve. That being said, the... 3rd January 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Nov.) Our Tracker shows that total capital outflows from the emerging world reached a ten-month high of $75bn last month. This was driven mainly by an acceleration in outflows from China, but it seems that... 9th December 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing PMI remains near two-year high The EM manufacturing PMI edged down in November, but still suggests that conditions in manufacturing sectors are much healthier than a few months ago. Emerging Europe, in particular, appears to have... 1st December 2016 · 1 min read