Emerging Markets Economics Update Export soft spot adds to evidence EM growth has peaked The export components of the EM business surveys have not deteriorated to the same extent as those in developed markets over the past couple of months, but they nonetheless add to the evidence that... 19th April 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Should we worry about the rise in EM public debt? The IMF’s latest Fiscal Monitor has put the rise in EM public debt over the past decade back under the spotlight. While debt ratios have increased across most of the emerging world, major... 19th April 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Apr.) Our Tracker shows that aggregate capital flows to EMs have been resilient over the past few months in the face of fears of a protectionist shift in the US and sell-offs in equity markets. Concerns... 13th April 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update US-China trade tensions and the impact on EMs The proposed US tariffs on imports of Chinese goods could have knock-on effects on other EMs, especially in East Asia, via supply chains. And countries such as Turkey are vulnerable to a deterioration... 4th April 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing softens at the end of Q1 The falls in EM manufacturing PMIs last month provide further signs that, after a pick-up right at the start of this year, growth in the emerging world eased over the course of Q1. 3rd April 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EMs in a world of rising bond yields The EMs with the largest debt burdens are (unsurprisingly) most vulnerable to a spike in global borrowing costs. However, interest rates are only one of several components that determine debt... 21st March 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Mar.) Our Tracker suggests that, after a short period in January in which capital flowed into EMs, the emerging world experienced net capital outflows once more in February. So far, the deterioration in... 9th March 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM commodity producers on the mend GDP data for 2017 revealed a widespread improvement in growth in key EM commodity producers last year. While we are relatively downbeat on the medium-term prospects for most of these economies, we... 6th March 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Trump, tariffs and potential triggers The steel and aluminium import tariffs announced by the US yesterday are unlikely to have a major impact on emerging economies but fears that they might presage a broader shift towards protectionism... 2nd March 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing remains in good shape The latest EM aggregate PMI from Markit remained unchanged in February, and suggests that the emerging world’s manufacturing sector continues to grow at a robust rate. However, this masks regional... 1st March 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Jan.) Our Capital Flows Tracker suggests that net flows to EMs turned positive in January for the first time since April last year, but subsequent market moves suggest that we are likely to have seen a... 21st February 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update US inflation not (yet) a big threat to EM economies Concerns about rising inflation pressures in the US have sent shockwaves through EM financial markets over the past week or so, but the economic fallout is likely to be limited. A sharp and sustained... 15th February 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Picking apart the global equity sell-off The further falls in global equities over the past 24 hours have not left EMs unscathed, but in general EMstocks have held up better than DM stocks and there’s little evidence that falls in equities... 9th February 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM governments and the great bond sell-off EM governments with the largest financing needs are, in theory at least, most vulnerable to a global spike in bond yields. This includes Egypt, Brazil, South Africa and India. However, it’s worth... 5th February 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing PMI dips but from high levels The latest EM aggregate PMI from Markit dipped in January but nonetheless remains consistent with solid rates of output growth in most regions. The dip in the headline figure was driven by a fall back... 1st February 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Who’s afraid of a China slowdown? EMs in Latin America and Emerging Asia have benefitted most from China’s recovery over the past 18 months. These economies therefore have the most to lose if China begins to weaken again, although the... 31st January 2018 · 1 min read
