Emerging Markets Economics Update EM market fallout from trade fears escalating The details of the Trump administration’s threat to step up its trade conflict with China are not yet clear, but one notable feature is that the market fallout for the emerging world has been greater... 19th June 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Currency sell-off tests resolve of some central banks History suggests that the sell-off in EM currencies over the past couple of months could be large enough to push central banks in Mexico, Brazil and South Africa to raise interest rates – although the... 14th June 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Jun.) Despite the market turmoil of recent weeks, problems in Turkey and Argentina look to be isolated incidents, with our capital flows Tracker giving no indication of large or widespread capital outflows... 14th June 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Higher oil prices and the boost to EM oil exporters There are already signs that the large EM oil exporters are responding to higher oil prices by scaling back austerity, which will help to drive stronger growth this year. But it’s notable that higher... 7th June 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Fed balance sheet confusion rears its head again Fears that a reduction in the size of the Fed’s balance sheet will somehow reduce the amount of dollars available to EMs to finance their external liabilities is grounded in a fundamental... 6th June 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update PMIs point to regional divergences The aggregate EM manufacturing PMI nudged down in May, but the more interesting story lies in the regional divergences, with readings in Latin America and Emerging Europe dropping but those in Asia... 1st June 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Why there’s less to the EM sell-off than meets the eye Warnings that the market turmoil in EMs over the past few weeks could presage a spate of crises similar to the late 1990s look overdone. A more sober assessment reveals three key points. 24th May 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The Taper Tantrum five years on The sell-off that has gripped EM financial markets over the past few weeks has raised parallels with the Taper Tantrum that occurred almost five years ago to the day. However, economic and financial... 21st May 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM financial conditions still loose, despite sell-off So far, there is little evidence that the sell-off in EM financial markets has fed through into a broader tightening of financial conditions. As a result, it is unlikely to have much impact on EM GDP... 17th May 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update After Argentina, who might be next? Argentina’s currency crisis and turn to the IMF for financial support have raised questions about how much ammunition EMs’ foreign exchange reserves provide. On the broadest measure of external... 15th May 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Putting the EM sell-off in context EM financial markets have steadied today, but the moves over the past few weeks have been relatively large compared with the other Fed-related sell-offs over the past 18 months. That said, this sell... 10th May 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (May) Capital flows to emerging markets have slowed in recent weeks. But for all the talk of a broad-based selloff in EM assets and a pull-back by foreign investors, there’s little evidence so far to... 9th May 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing stabilises at the start of Q2 April’s PMIs suggest that, having slowed in Q1, growth in EM manufacturing steadied at the start of Q2. But the surveys brought further evidence that EM export growth may weaken in the coming months. 2nd May 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Taking stock of the latest bout of EM currency weakness The recent pressure on EM currencies has prompted a stronger reaction from EM central banks than we have seen for some time. But while we do expect a general shift towards monetary tightening in the... 30th April 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Winners and losers from the latest jump in oil The latest rise in oil prices has eased fiscal concerns in a number of EM oil producers but only at the expense of increased balance of payments concerns in some EM oil consumers, notably Turkey and... 25th April 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Will softer EM inflation trigger interest rate cuts? The recent string of weak inflation data released across EMs has been due largely to a drop in food inflation and, while we think that many central banks will look through this, policymakers in some... 23rd April 2018 · 1 min read
