Emerging Markets Economics Update Winners and losers from the latest drop in oil Within the EM world, the main beneficiaries of the recent drop in oil prices are Korea, India, Turkey, and South Africa, while the biggest losers are the Gulf States, Russia and Nigeria. That being... 22nd June 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Revisiting EM links with China The EMs with the deepest trade ties to China have, unsurprisingly, benefitted most from the economy’s rebound since the start of 2016. These countries lie mostly in Asia. It follows that these are the... 21st June 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (May) Our Capital Flows Tracker shows that net capital outflows from emerging markets stabilised in May. We expect that they will remain subdued over the remainder of the year. 12th June 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update More to structural EM weakness than investment behaviour Our view that EMs have entered a period of structurally weaker growth has started to become the mainstream, but there is a tendency to misdiagnose this as solely a problem of deficient investment... 5th June 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing recovery loses a bit more steam May’s PMI data point to a further softening in the recovery of emerging market manufacturing. Nonetheless, the survey still points to expansion, just at a slower pace than at the start of the year. 1st June 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Three reasons not to fear Fed balance sheet normalisation There are still plenty of unanswered questions about the Fed’s plans to reduce the size of its balance sheet, but there are at least three reasons to think that it won’t cause a major dislocation in... 25th May 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM markets fall, but economic fallout should be limited Political developments in the US and Brazil have led to sizeable falls in EM currencies and equities today but the economic implications for EMs are likely to be limited. Even in Brazil itself, it’s... 18th May 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Apr.) Our Tracker shows that net capital outflows from emerging markets picked up in April. Outflows will probably accelerate further later this year, but they are likely to remain subdued by recent... 10th May 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Latest commodity price falls don’t alter economic outlook for EMs The broad fall in commodity prices this week has weighed on EM commodity currencies, but it doesn’t do much to alter the economic outlook either for EM commodity producers or EM commodity consumers. 5th May 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM survey data overstating the pace of recovery The EM business and consumer surveys seem to have overstated the strength of the hard EM activity figures over the past year or so. That said, the fall in the EM manufacturing PMI in April provides... 4th May 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing recovery softens at the start of Q2 April’s PMI data suggest that the recovery in emerging market manufacturing lost a bit of steam at the start of Q2. Nonetheless, the survey is still consistent with continued expansion, albeit at a... 2nd May 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM credit divergences should soon start to narrow The broad stability in EM credit growth in recent quarters masks a large divergence between individual countries, with an acceleration in lending in China offset by a contraction in Brazil and Russia... 19th April 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Mar.) Our Tracker shows that capital outflows from emerging markets essentially ceased in March. Outflows will probably pick up again later this year, but they are likely to remain weak by recent standards. 18th April 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Political risks don’t warrant major growth revisions – yet… Political risks in some parts of the emerging world have escalated in recent weeks, but not to the extent that we are marking down our near-term growth forecasts. 11th April 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Five non-consensus calls on EMs Earlier this week we published our latest Emerging Markets Economic Outlook, which outlined our core macroeconomic and financial market forecasts for 2017-19. In this Update, we summarise five key... 6th April 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing ends Q1 on a strong note March’s PMIs suggest manufacturing in the emerging world rounded off the quarter strongly. In particular, conditions improved in Brazil, Turkey and India. The main exception was Korea, where business... 3rd April 2017 · 1 min read