Emerging Markets Economics Update Trump failing to deliver on protectionist threat One year on from his election, Donald Trump is struggling to live up to the promises he made on the campaign trail to get tough with countries that run big bilateral trade surpluses with the US... 8th November 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Powell nomination won't have big impact on EMs The nomination of Jerome Powell to be the next chair of the Fed doesn’t have significant implications for EMs. We think that the economic recovery is close to peaking in several emerging economies and... 2nd November 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing growth eases in October Our estimate of the aggregate Emerging Market manufacturing PMI suggests that manufacturing activity weakened at the start of the Q4. This slowdown appears to be broad-based across EM regions. 1st November 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Tail risks to watch for in EMs Our relatively sanguine view on the outlook for EMs over the next 12-18 months has prompted several clients to ask about risks to our forecasts. While risks – both positive and negative – are by their... 24th October 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Oct.) Total EM capital outflows slowed to a trickle in September. Portfolio inflows also seem to be slowing, but they remain very high by the standard of recent years. 17th October 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM dollar debt – a primer The decision by the Fed to begin the process of balance sheet reduction this month – coupled with the heavy hints that a December rate hike remains on the table – has led several clients to ask about... 4th October 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing still in decent shape The latest Markit PMI surveys suggest that conditions in emerging market manufacturing eased a touch at the end of Q3, but remain robust compared with the past few years. 2nd October 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Drop in CA deficits take EMs out the firing line There are several reasons why the gradual tightening of monetary policy in developed markets is unlikely to cause major problems for EMs, but one of the most important is that current account deficits... 26th September 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Time to worry about rising EM sovereign debt? The fact that aggregate EM sovereign debt has now surpassed $11.7trn has grabbed a few headlines but several factors – notably the increase in EM GDP over the past decade – mean that fiscal risks are... 19th September 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Aug.) Net capital outflows from emerging markets slowed a bit in August, but the big picture is that they remained low by recent standards. Portfolio inflows weakened from the highs recorded earlier in Q3. 8th September 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing still going strong in Q3 Last month’s PMIs suggest that conditions in EM manufacturing sectors improved in Q3, supported by most of the major BRIC economies. 1st September 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Jul.) Total EM capital outflows remained pretty stable in July. Net portfolio inflows picked up a bit, though more recent figures suggest that this may have reversed in August. 18th August 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing recovery soft at the start of Q3 July’s PMI data remain consistent with a continued expansion in EM manufacturing, albeit at a pace that is down slightly from the highs seen at the start of the year. 1st August 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Fed and ECB not the only games in town for EMs EM bond markets have, for the most part, shrugged off the rise in developed market bond yields since the end of June. This strengthens our view that policy normalisation in developed markets is... 20th July 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Jun.) Our Capital Flows Tracker shows that net capital outflows from emerging markets remained subdued in the first half of 2017. We expect that outflows will stay low over the coming quarters. 17th July 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM credit bubble is now (mostly) a China story The past couple of weeks have seen renewed concerns about credit risks in emerging economies. The key point that has been missed in much of the analysis, however, is that credit bubbles have begun to... 11th July 2017 · 1 min read