Asset Allocation Update The future may be brighter for EM equities We think that EM equities will deliver better returns in the next couple of years than they have since the pandemic. Returns are likely to be lower than those we expect from US equities but similar to... 9th February 2024 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Frontier sovereign debt distress still high While the overall incidence of sovereign debt distress in the emerging world has fallen back since last year, sovereign debt distress in frontier markets hasn’t. And, if anything, things have taken a... 7th February 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing isn't out of the woods While the emerging market manufacturing PMIs for January generally edged up, we think that weak global demand will weigh on EM industry over the coming months. The good new is that price pressures... 1st February 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Which EMs will be next to cut interest rates? The EM monetary easing cycle began to broaden out late last year. Mexico’s central bank will probably be the next to cut rates later this quarter, and many Asian central banks will join the fray in... 29th January 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Inflation threat from EM labour markets easing Wage growth remains soft across much of Emerging Asia, supporting our view that the region’s central banks will start monetary easing cycles sooner than most expect. Wage pressures have softened... 25th January 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Jan. 2024) Capital inflows into EM bond and equity markets have eased off a little recently, but they are still running around their highest level in over three years. And taken together with the narrowing of... 18th January 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM sovereign debt distress easing, but not over The incidence of sovereign debt distress has fallen sharply across the emerging world in the last few months, but that doesn’t rule out the possibility of default in a handful of EMs. Tunisia looks... 16th January 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Expect more EM growth divergence in 2024 Aggregate EM GDP growth is set to slow in 2024, but as important as the overall story is understanding the different cycles that are playing out at a country level. We think some countries which... 9th January 2024 · 3 mins read
Climate Economics Update Clearing the air on the economics of pollution Given the thick smog covering parts of South Asia this winter, forcing schools to shut down and disrupting activity, this Update takes a closer look into the economics of air pollution. In view of the... 8th January 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing ends the year on a soft note The emerging markets manufacturing PMIs for December were a mixed bag. The headline index stagnated at the aggregate EM level and remained below 50 in over half of the countries in our sample. Price... 2nd January 2024 · 2 mins read
Climate Economics Update IMF climate funds to help “mobilise” private finance The extension of climate-related financing by the IMF to vulnerable emerging market economies (EMs) demonstrates how the Fund is factoring in macroeconomic and financial stability risks stemming from... 11th December 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Where are we in the EM business cycle? A stand-out feature of the emerging world in 2023 has been the extent to which economic cycles have diverged. Divergence is likely to be the name of the game in 2024 too. We think some countries which... 7th December 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Your questions about 2024 answered We held two online Drop-In sessions today to discuss the outlook for 2024 and the risks to our forecasts. (See a recording here .) This Update summarises the answers to several of the questions that... 5th December 2023 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Dec. 2023) Inflows into EM bond and equity markets have picked up over the past month, particularly in Turkey where optimism around the policy U-turn seems to be building. Capital flows into EMs may be bumpy in... 5th December 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM PMIs edge up, but external demand remains weak The emerging market manufacturing PMIs for November were a mixed bag – although most headline indices edged up, they remained below 50 in over half the countries that we track, largely due to weak... 1st December 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Key risks for 2024 In this Global Economics Update, we describe eight of the biggest risks to our economic forecasts for 2024. The unusual nature of this cycle and uncertainties surrounding the transmission of monetary... 30th November 2023 · 6 mins read