Emerging Markets Economics Update Another look at food inflation fears in EMs The rise in global agricultural prices in recent months has sparked concerns about a surge in food inflation across the emerging world but we think that these fears are overdone. In any case, most... 5th February 2021 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update FX intervention: echoes of “currency wars” The announcement of FX purchase programmes by several EM central banks has evoked comparisons with the “currency wars” that followed the Global Financial Crisis. One lesson from this period is that FX... 4th February 2021 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update PMIs still consistent with solid manufacturing growth Manufacturing PMIs from emerging markets generally rose last month, underscoring that industrial sectors should continue to weather renewed outbreaks and restrictions in the coming months. But China’s... 1st February 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Premature end of fiscal support a risk to the recovery The main risks to the outlook for emerging markets this year relate to virus developments and vaccine rollout. The more traditional macro risks are smaller, but one going under the radar in a few... 21st January 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EMs and the end of lockdowns The speed at which vaccines can be rolled out will be a key determinant of economic performance this year, and this is likely to differ widely across EMs. This Update sets out a provisional framework... 19th January 2021 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor High-frequency data show that the surge in net inflows to EM bond and equity markets seen last month is now easing, but inflows remain strong. We think that will remain the case as global risk... 15th January 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update A guide to EM elections in 2021 In this Update, we take a look at the key elections that are scheduled across the emerging world over the coming year and outline their implications for economic policy and growth. 13th January 2021 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The challenges facing rollouts of coronavirus vaccines The risks to vaccination programmes fall into three groups: procurement, deployment, and effectiveness. In the coming few months, deployment issues will be a key limiting factor in most countries... 8th January 2021 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update PMIs point to solid EM manufacturing recovery While the EM manufacturing PMI declined last month, largely reflecting a fall in China’s index, the overall message is that EM industry held up well at the end of last year. The sector is likely to... 4th January 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Strong inflows, but talk of “borrowing binge” overdone Net portfolio inflows into EMs have been close to multi-year highs this month, and that appears to have come alongside an uptick in sovereign Eurobond issuance in recent weeks. Even so, debt issuance... 17th December 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update PMIs suggest industrial recovery to continue November’s headline manufacturing PMIs were generally encouraging and suggest that EM industrial sectors are faring well, even in Central & Eastern Europe where overall GDP will slump in Q4. We expect... 1st December 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Increase in EM portfolio inflows likely to be sustained The US election outcome and positive vaccine news has triggered a jump in EM net portfolio inflows to their highest level since 2014. These inflows are likely to remain robust over the coming quarters... 24th November 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update A closer look at vaccine distribution in EMs Relatively few EMs have signed large-scale advance purchase arrangements with pharmaceutical companies and the roll-out of vaccines is, in large part, likely to be slower than in DMs. This Update... 18th November 2020 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What would a vaccine mean for EMs? The distribution of an effective COVID-19 vaccine across the emerging world would clearly improve the near-term economic outlook significantly. Even so, some EMs, including India and parts of Latin... 10th November 2020 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Turkey, Argentina and the parallels with 2018 The recent pressure on the Argentine peso and the Turkish lira has echoes of the currency crises both countries suffered in 2018. But there are also some important differences which mean that, even if... 3rd November 2020 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM banks: revisiting the risks India’s banks entered the crisis in worse shape than other major EMs, although large state involvement in the financial sector means the government is unlikely to remain idle if loan losses start to... 3rd November 2020 · 3 mins read
