Emerging Markets Economics Update Three key questions on IMF support for EMs Many EMs are now turning to the IMF for help in dealing with the fallout from coronavirus, raising questions about whether the Fund will be able to cope with the increased in demands on its purse... 2nd April 2020 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM PMI masks weakening conditions The rebound in the EM manufacturing PMI in March offers little comfort as the survey masks the true weakness of industry. What’s more, the services sector may fare worse during this downturn. 1st April 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What to make of EM central bank bonds purchases EM central banks have acted swiftly in response to the coronavirus crisis, including adding bond purchases to their toolkit. These are aimed primarily at reducing credit spreads and stabilising the... 1st April 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Would capital controls work in EMs? In the face of rapid capital outflows, EMs may turn to capital controls to stabilise balance of payments positions. Such measures might help to stave off crises in some countries (particularly if they... 31st March 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Where are EM financial vulnerabilities greatest? The impact of global measures to contain the coronavirus will result in a steep fall in EM GDP this year. And the collapse in output, spike in capital outflows and plunge in commodity prices could... 30th March 2020 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM capital flows: bank flows are the big risk The dislocation in global financial markets has led to large capital outflows from EM debt and equity markets, which has caused financial conditions to tighten. And the economic effects could be much... 24th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Are we about to see a wave of sovereign defaults? A record number of sovereign dollar bonds are now trading at distressed levels, although these are mostly those of smaller EM governments. Among the most highly distressed sovereigns, Zambia and... 24th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EMs and the impact of containment measures The proliferation of measures to curb the spread of the coronavirus as well as shifts in consumer behaviour will have a severe effect on retail, accommodation, recreation and transport sectors across... 19th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Covid-19: Will EM policymakers respond aggressively? Governments in the developed world are unveiling major fiscal and monetary policy responses to try to stave off a financial crisis, and some EMs (notably parts of Emerging Europe and Emerging Asia)... 19th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Which EMs would struggle to contain an outbreak? Extremely dense populations in urban areas, poor healthcare provision, and limited ability to impose quarantine measures mean that countries in South and South-East Asia, as well as Egypt and Nigeria... 18th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM financial conditions: Alarm bells starting to ring The broad-based tightening in EM financial conditions in recent days has been similar in scale to the onset of the global financial crisis. Conditions are now particularly restrictive outside of the... 16th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Are we facing a re-run of the 2014-16 oil price crash? The recent oil price shock has invoked comparisons with 2014-16, when prices fell to similarly low levels and large EMs – notably Brazil and Russia – entered crises. But this time around, we think... 11th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Where are EM external vulnerabilities largest? If the recent tightening of external financing conditions is sustained, it would result in severe balance of payments strains for the usual suspects (Turkey and Argentina) as well as some of the... 11th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Three key points on the oil market rout The sharp drop in oil prices won’t cause major economic strains in Saudi Arabia or Russia, suggesting that they will raise output and oil prices will remain low over the course of this year. But... 9th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Coronavirus to trigger more widespread EM rate cuts The continued spread of the coronavirus and the Fed’s emergency rate cut will result in more aggressive loosening in EMs than we previously envisaged. We expect central banks in much of Emerging Asia... 4th March 2020 · 3 mins read