Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor Net capital outflows from emerging markets have eased over the past few weeks and Turkey and India (which suffered large outflows in April and May) have started to see renewed inflows. Even if... 9th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Supply shortages and EM inflation risks Supply-related price pressures are building, particularly in Central Europe and parts of East Asia. And while the factors behind this should prove temporary, output gaps in the most-affected countries... 9th June 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Which EMs will climb the global league table? Emerging markets as a whole will increase their share of global GDP over the coming decades, with the largest expansions likely to come in EMs with rapid population growth (sub-Saharan Africa), those... 3rd June 2021 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update CEE manufacturing strengthens, but India suffers Markit’s aggregate emerging market manufacturing PMI dropped back in May as new virus waves took a toll on some countries, notably India, although they suggest that the manufacturing recovery in... 1st June 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EMs: a helping hand from migrants Remittances into EMs were surprisingly resilient last year and should continue to hold up over the coming quarters. The outlook is strongest in Mexico and parts of South East Asia, due to the recovery... 25th May 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM food inflation: how concerned should we be? The rise in global agricultural prices in recent months has sparked concerns about a surge in EM food inflation. While it would be remiss to dismiss these, we think the impact may not be as severe as... 19th May 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What our commodity forecasts mean for EMs The major oil producers have seen the biggest gains in exports from the rally in commodity prices this year, although most of this windfall is likely to be saved which will limit the boost to economic... 14th May 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor High-frequency data suggest that outflows from India’s bond and equity markets have picked up in recent weeks as the country’s COVID-19 outbreak has worsened. At an aggregate level, though, outflows... 12th May 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Five points on the latest virus outbreaks While the high numbers of COVID-19 cases will drag on the recovery in many in EMs in Q2, there are – at least outside India – encouraging signs that the worst of the current waves may be over in most... 6th May 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The spill-overs from India’s COVID-19 crisis The impact of India’s COVID-19 crisis on other EMs through normal economic channels such as trade and financial links should be manageable. The more serious impact will come through delays to vaccine... 5th May 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM PMIs suggest manufacturing holding up, for now Markit’s EM PMI rose to a four-month high in April, but manufacturing sectors are likely to enter a softer patch in places facing large virus outbreaks. Meanwhile, supply chain disruptions are causing... 4th May 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (April. 2021) With the notable exception of Turkey, the net capital outflows from emerging markets seen in February and March appear to have eased in recent weeks. Outflows may yet intensify over the coming... 15th April 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Taking stock of the latest virus developments in EMs Virus outbreaks have taken a sharp turn for the worse across several large EMs – including India and much of Latin America – and look likely to hold back economic recoveries in Q2. The recent... 14th April 2021 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update SDR allocation a positive step but won’t end debt woes The mooted $650bn allocation of IMF Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) that looks close to being signed off would provide welcome relief to some smaller frontier markets such as Ghana and Kenya that still... 7th April 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing recovery continues but Brazil struggles Markit’s EM manufacturing PMI dipped last month, but the survey still paints a pretty positive picture of the sector’s recovery across the emerging world – with Brazil a notable outlier. In the... 1st April 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Israel’s re-opening: the impact so far The rapid re-opening of Israel’s economy since February has triggered a rebound in activity that looks stronger than had been widely anticipated. In particular, the recovery in hospitality and leisure... 31st March 2021 · 5 mins read
