Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Aug) Our Tracker suggests that EMs experienced net capital inflows last month for the first time since the coronavirus crisis began. Daily data suggest that net capital inflows were generally sustained in... 26th August 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Five points on the latest EM coronavirus numbers Emerging markets account for the majority of new global coronavirus cases each day (see Chart 1) and, while containment measures may be tightened sporadically, these are generally likely to be... 21st August 2020 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Why Turkey contagion risks are smaller than in 2018 Concerns are mounting that Turkey is on the brink of a fresh currency crisis which, were it to materialise, could trigger some turbulence in other EMs’ financial markets. But it’s unlikely to result... 13th August 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Current account data suggest Turkish lira is an outlier A fundamental force behind the growing pressure on the Turkish lira is the economy’s widening current account deficit. But in most cases, the Covid-19 crisis appears to be causing current account... 12th August 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update PMIs: Uneven manufacturing recovery continues The rise in the EM manufacturing PMI in July (to 51.4) should be treated with caution but, even so, it still suggests that conditions in EM manufacturing are improving. The recovery is likely to be... 3rd August 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Jul. 2020) The recovery in EM capital flows stalled last month, but this is only a minor setback – net outflows were very small. The main culprit appears to have been softer foreign demand for EM equities, with... 20th July 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What would financial repression look like in EMs? Several EMs in Latin America, as well as South Africa, Nigeria, India and Turkey could use financial repression policies to deal with the legacy of higher public debt burdens resulting from the... 9th July 2020 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Credit growth should continue to hold up A combination of timely policy support and resilient cross-border banking sector flows appeared to alleviate a collapse in EM credit growth during height of the coronavirus crisis. These forces should... 8th July 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What next for EM inflation? A rebound in fuel inflation will push up headline inflation in most EMs over the coming months, even as food and core price pressures moderate. Alongside the recovery in activity, this means that the... 2nd July 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update PMIs: Manufacturing recovery underway The strong rise in the EM manufacturing PMI from 45.4 in May to 49.6 in June suggests that EM manufacturing is firmly on the road to recovery. We think that the rebound in activity will probably be... 1st July 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Will we see a turn to austerity in EMs? Governments in Brazil and South Africa have outlined plans for large multi-year fiscal squeezes from 2021, which will hold back their economic recoveries and are likely to be politically untenable... 30th June 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor Having suffered sizeable net capital outflows in March and April, our Tracker suggests that capital flows into and out of the emerging world were essentially balanced last month. And daily data... 25th June 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Are lockdowns being eased too soon? Policymakers in the likes of India, much of Latin America and parts of Africa are easing lockdowns even though the coronavirus is still spreading rapidly. This may be less economically damaging than... 11th June 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Early evidence of major fiscal damage Recently released government budget data for April suggest that fiscal deficits in many EMs, including in Brazil, Mexico, India and Turkey, may be running at 10-20% of GDP. This won’t cause a spate of... 10th June 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Another look at EM financial conditions Financial conditions have eased substantially across major EMs over the past few months, but we doubt that this fading headwind will turn into a major tailwind for activity in the coming quarters. 9th June 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What to make of steeper EM yield curves? The steepening of EM local currency government bond yield curves since the crisis began in mid-February largely reflects a fall in short-term rates, but in some cases, like Brazil, Mexico and South... 4th June 2020 · 3 mins read