Emerging Markets Economics Update US recession concerns, the market sell-off and EMs Fears of a US recession have rattled EM equity markets at a time when EM economies themselves are showing more pronounced signs of weakness. Most EM currencies have held up well, suggesting a dovish... 5th August 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing finally running out of steam The sharp fall in the EM manufacturing PMI suggests that the recent strength of industry may not be sustained in Q3. The declines in the PMIs were broad-based, although they are still relatively high... 1st August 2024 · 2 mins read
We are optimistic about EM sovereign bonds’ returns Our view on emerging market local-currency government bonds is broadly upbeat for the next year or so. We think returns will be largest, in common-currency terms, in Emerging Asia. 31st July 2024 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Is EM central bank independence under threat? Donald Trump’s comments on the Fed have brought the issue of central bank independence into the spotlight. This is not just a concern in the US but an issue that is rearing its head in a number of EMs... 29th July 2024 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM fiscal rules: there to be broken? A growing number of EMs have adopted fiscal rules to improve investor confidence in the management of their public finances. But the recent deterioration in fiscal health in some EMs has led to the... 23rd July 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Global rate-cutting cycle is not “one size fits all” While the global monetary policy loosening cycle is now well underway, there is more nuance than you might assume. Recent data have made us more confident that cuts (or further cuts) are to come in... 18th July 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Jul. 2024) Net capital inflows into EMs remained positive over the past month, largely reflecting continued strong inflows into EM bonds, particularly Turkey, while there were outflows post-election in Mexico... 11th July 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM growth: out of sync One of the takeaways from our latest Emerging Markets Outlook is that the EM business cycle is unusually unsynchronised. We expect some convergence as the effects of the enormous macro shocks of... 3rd July 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Asia continuing to lead EM manufacturing PMIs higher The EM manufacturing PMI rose to a three-year high in June, driven by improvements in the surveys in much of Asia which have continued to benefit from strong export demand. Manufacturing recoveries... 1st July 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Life still left in the EM easing cycle The outcomes of the EM central bank meetings over the past 48 hours or so underscore the point that, while the EM monetary easing cycle is likely to continue over the coming quarters, it will no... 20th June 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Jun. 2024) Net capital inflows into EMs have climbed back into positive territory in recent weeks, driven by a sharp rise in foreign investors’ purchases of Turkish government debt. This strength could continue... 11th June 2024 · 2 mins read
Global Markets Update Parsing the market’s verdict on recent EM elections Elections in South Africa, India, and Mexico have generated sizeable reactions in their financial markets over the past week or so, highlighting the potential for electoral surprises to generate short... 7th June 2024 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM growth robust in Q1 but disparities persist Aggregate EM GDP growth remained strong in Q1, though we still expect a slowdown later this year. At a regional level, Emerging Asia will lead the pack, however there are tentative signs that... 6th June 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing performance strong but uneven The EM manufacturing PMI remained at a three-year high in May but the picture is becoming increasingly nuanced at a country level. Meanwhile, the PMIs also showed price pressures rose again last month... 3rd June 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM savings problems not just a China story Some of the structural problems in China’s economy have their roots in its excessively high savings rate (and underconsumption). For many other EMs, savings rates are also a problem but for the... 21st May 2024 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update India’s geopolitical balancing act India is benefitting economically from maintaining its historical non-aligned stance in response to tensions between the West and Russia, and Iran to a lesser extent. But notwithstanding a potential... 16th May 2024 · 6 mins read
