Global Economics The implications of sustained travel restrictions Taken alone, prolonged restrictions on international travel would do little to hinder the global recovery since overseas tourism is a small share of world GDP and some of the lost spending would be... 18th February 2021 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What the latest oil price rise means for EMs The latest rise in the price of oil – and our view that it will increase further this year – could push current account and budget balances into surplus in many of the EM producers. It should ease any... 17th February 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Three key points on the risks of another taper tantrum We do not expect a re-run of the 2013 “taper tantrum”, in which EM assets went into a tailspin and some EM central banks were forced to hike policy rates. But even if there were a similar period of... 16th February 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EMs: why this recovery will be different The recovery in many emerging markets after the Global Financial Crisis was characterised by concerns about destabilising capital inflows, overheating, and asset price bubbles. This recovery is likely... 12th February 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Recovery in EM portfolio flows may already be fading Net portfolio inflows into many emerging markets reached multi-year highs towards the end of 2020, which allowed a handful of central banks to lean against the wind and accumulate FX reserves. That... 10th February 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Another look at food inflation fears in EMs The rise in global agricultural prices in recent months has sparked concerns about a surge in food inflation across the emerging world but we think that these fears are overdone. In any case, most... 5th February 2021 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update FX intervention: echoes of “currency wars” The announcement of FX purchase programmes by several EM central banks has evoked comparisons with the “currency wars” that followed the Global Financial Crisis. One lesson from this period is that FX... 4th February 2021 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update PMIs still consistent with solid manufacturing growth Manufacturing PMIs from emerging markets generally rose last month, underscoring that industrial sectors should continue to weather renewed outbreaks and restrictions in the coming months. But China’s... 1st February 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Premature end of fiscal support a risk to the recovery The main risks to the outlook for emerging markets this year relate to virus developments and vaccine rollout. The more traditional macro risks are smaller, but one going under the radar in a few... 21st January 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EMs and the end of lockdowns The speed at which vaccines can be rolled out will be a key determinant of economic performance this year, and this is likely to differ widely across EMs. This Update sets out a provisional framework... 19th January 2021 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor High-frequency data show that the surge in net inflows to EM bond and equity markets seen last month is now easing, but inflows remain strong. We think that will remain the case as global risk... 15th January 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update A guide to EM elections in 2021 In this Update, we take a look at the key elections that are scheduled across the emerging world over the coming year and outline their implications for economic policy and growth. 13th January 2021 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The challenges facing rollouts of coronavirus vaccines The risks to vaccination programmes fall into three groups: procurement, deployment, and effectiveness. In the coming few months, deployment issues will be a key limiting factor in most countries... 8th January 2021 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update PMIs point to solid EM manufacturing recovery While the EM manufacturing PMI declined last month, largely reflecting a fall in China’s index, the overall message is that EM industry held up well at the end of last year. The sector is likely to... 4th January 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Strong inflows, but talk of “borrowing binge” overdone Net portfolio inflows into EMs have been close to multi-year highs this month, and that appears to have come alongside an uptick in sovereign Eurobond issuance in recent weeks. Even so, debt issuance... 17th December 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update PMIs suggest industrial recovery to continue November’s headline manufacturing PMIs were generally encouraging and suggest that EM industrial sectors are faring well, even in Central & Eastern Europe where overall GDP will slump in Q4. We expect... 1st December 2020 · 3 mins read