Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (April. 2021) With the notable exception of Turkey, the net capital outflows from emerging markets seen in February and March appear to have eased in recent weeks. Outflows may yet intensify over the coming... 15th April 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Taking stock of the latest virus developments in EMs Virus outbreaks have taken a sharp turn for the worse across several large EMs – including India and much of Latin America – and look likely to hold back economic recoveries in Q2. The recent... 14th April 2021 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update SDR allocation a positive step but won’t end debt woes The mooted $650bn allocation of IMF Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) that looks close to being signed off would provide welcome relief to some smaller frontier markets such as Ghana and Kenya that still... 7th April 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing recovery continues but Brazil struggles Markit’s EM manufacturing PMI dipped last month, but the survey still paints a pretty positive picture of the sector’s recovery across the emerging world – with Brazil a notable outlier. In the... 1st April 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Israel’s re-opening: the impact so far The rapid re-opening of Israel’s economy since February has triggered a rebound in activity that looks stronger than had been widely anticipated. In particular, the recovery in hospitality and leisure... 31st March 2021 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update No getaway from tourism woes for some time Particularly weak recoveries lie in store for tourism-dependent emerging markets, including much of Africa, parts of the Middle East (e.g. Jordan), and South East Asia (e.g. Cambodia). A lacklustre... 29th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Lessons from the latest EM rate decisions The raft of EM central bank decisions over the last couple of weeks suggests that the door has largely closed on further rate cuts and that the balance will shift (slightly) towards hikes over the... 26th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM contagion risks from Turkey look limited The latest crisis engulfing Turkey will make it harder for the country to roll over its external debts, with the banking sector particularly vulnerable. If Turkey’s crisis worsens, it may cause... 22nd March 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Revisiting financial repression in EMs The recent rise in EM sovereign bond yields will, if sustained, make public debt problems in some countries even worse. Those with large local currency debts may ultimately turn to financial... 18th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Market Capital Flows Monitor Portfolio outflows from several EMs have intensified over recent weeks as fears over a re-run of the “Taper Tantrum” appear to be playing on investors’ minds. But outflows are currently much smaller... 15th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Are we about to see a wave of EM rate hikes? Recent currency falls and rises in inflation have all but guaranteed interest rate hikes in Turkey and Brazil next week, and Russia’s central bank is likely to lay the groundwork for tightening too... 11th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Rising bond yields and the threat to EM debt burdens The rise US Treasury yields poses a risk for those EMs with large external financing needs such as Turkey as well as some smaller frontier markets, and could force central banks in these countries to... 10th March 2021 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Manufacturing PMIs still point to further EM recovery February’s manufacturing PMIs released across the emerging world were the proverbial mixed bag but, taken together, generally point towards solid EM industrial production growth in the next month or... 1st March 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Macro fallout from market rout limited so far Despite the rise in EM bond yields over the past week, EM financial conditions remain very loose. Most central banks are likely to look through the accompanying sell-off in currencies (indeed, some... 26th February 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EMs and Biden’s American Rescue Plan President Biden’s fiscal plan would support the US economy but the positive spillovers to emerging markets via trade are likely to be surprisingly limited. We doubt the Fed would move more quickly to... 25th February 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Learning from Israel’s success Israel’s rapid vaccination programme has allowed the government to set out plans to re-open the domestic economy in the coming weeks and may offer some lessons for other countries. The speed at which... 19th February 2021 · 7 mins read