Emerging Markets Economics Focus What Trump’s return would mean for EMs All the signs suggest that a second Trump administration would take a more protectionist approach to trade. Export demand in Mexico, East Asia and ASEAN would be particularly hard hit by a universal... 29th April 2024 · 13 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus EM financial risk – An early warning system The past few years have sharpened investors’ focus on assessing risks and vulnerabilities across the EM world. We have developed a comprehensive suite of indicators to identify early signs of a... 20th March 2024 · 17 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus EM winners and losers from the green transition The green transition will deal a significant blow to EM oil producers that have failed to save their windfalls (Nigeria, Colombia, Angola), but boost the export revenues of economies such as Chile and... 4th March 2024 · 14 mins read
Global Economics Focus The shape of the fractured world economy in 2024 Our expanded Global Fracturing database allows clients to analyse how geopolitical pressures are reshaping global economic and financial activity. Here, we highlight some of the key findings. 16th November 2023 · 10 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus The economic impact of AI in emerging markets The AI revolution will make EM income convergence – or “catch-up growth” – harder as richer economies are better equipped to deploy the technology on a wide scale. It poses a particular headwind to... 2nd November 2023 · 13 mins read
Asset Allocation Focus How we think the outlook for EM equities stacks up We think emerging market equities in Asia will outperform those in EMEA and Latin America over the next couple of years, although we doubt they’ll do better than developed market equities. In view of... 15th September 2023 · 12 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Assessing the inflation threat from EM labour markets Labour markets look very tight in Central Europe and a handful of other EMs (particularly in Latin America), and we think that wage growth is unlikely to fall far enough in these countries to bring... 2nd March 2023 · 19 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Higher interest rates exposing private sector debt risks Higher interest rates and larger private sector debt burdens mean that debt interest service ratios could rise to levels last seen in the 1990s in many EMs next year. This is unlikely to be a major... 17th November 2022 · 18 mins read
Global Economics Focus When will tourism recover from the pandemic? The post-pandemic recovery in travel and tourism still has some way to go in parts of the world that have been slower to lift restrictions, such as in Asia. And China’s reluctance to move away from... 15th September 2022 · 15 mins read
Asia Economics Focus The economic consequences of an attack on Taiwan China’s leadership has options other than invasion to coerce Taiwan to submit to its political control. The immediate economic and financial ramifications would differ in each case. But any scenario... 2nd August 2022 · 23 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus EM sovereign debt: where do the risks lie? The strong dollar and spill-overs from the war in Ukraine have caused sovereign debt risks to escalate in some frontier markets. But most large EMs have far stronger public sector balance sheets... 11th May 2022 · 14 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Can EMs weather Fed tightening? For the most part, EMs are well placed to withstand rising US interest rates, but there are pockets of vulnerability where external financing needs are significant. Among the large EMs, Turkey... 22nd March 2022 · 13 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Why is inflation different in Asia? Inflation hasn’t emerged as a concern across Emerging Asia in the same way it has in the rest of the emerging world, in part because food price inflation in Asia is much lower, but also because the... 22nd November 2021 · 10 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus The pandemic and EM scarring risks The pandemic is likely to inflict lasting damage on potential growth in economies in much of Latin America, Africa and South and Southeast Asia, adding to the structural headwinds that they already... 9th September 2021 · 17 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus EM vulnerabilities are mainly home-grown A rise in US Treasury yields and tightening of external financial conditions could cause vulnerabilities in Turkey and a handful of smaller frontier markets to crystallise. However, most major EMs’... 12th April 2021 · 13 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus How vaccines will affect our EM forecasts This Focus sets out a framework for thinking about how the distribution of COVID-19 vaccines will affect the outlook for EMs. For much of Emerging Europe and Chile, these developments may allow... 30th November 2020 · 14 mins read
