Emerging Markets Economics Focus EM sovereign debt: where do the risks lie? The strong dollar and spill-overs from the war in Ukraine have caused sovereign debt risks to escalate in some frontier markets. But most large EMs have far stronger public sector balance sheets... 11th May 2022 · 14 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Can EMs weather Fed tightening? For the most part, EMs are well placed to withstand rising US interest rates, but there are pockets of vulnerability where external financing needs are significant. Among the large EMs, Turkey... 22nd March 2022 · 13 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Why is inflation different in Asia? Inflation hasn’t emerged as a concern across Emerging Asia in the same way it has in the rest of the emerging world, in part because food price inflation in Asia is much lower, but also because the... 22nd November 2021 · 10 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus The pandemic and EM scarring risks The pandemic is likely to inflict lasting damage on potential growth in economies in much of Latin America, Africa and South and Southeast Asia, adding to the structural headwinds that they already... 9th September 2021 · 17 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus EM vulnerabilities are mainly home-grown A rise in US Treasury yields and tightening of external financial conditions could cause vulnerabilities in Turkey and a handful of smaller frontier markets to crystallise. However, most major EMs’... 12th April 2021 · 13 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus How vaccines will affect our EM forecasts This Focus sets out a framework for thinking about how the distribution of COVID-19 vaccines will affect the outlook for EMs. For much of Emerging Europe and Chile, these developments may allow... 30th November 2020 · 14 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus The winners and losers from climate change Climate change will be more costly to EMs than developed countries, with parts of Africa, as well as South and South East Asia most vulnerable to rising global temperatures. That said, some EMs could... 19th November 2020 · 15 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Could the crisis lead to higher EM inflation? Large output gaps look set to keep inflation low in most emerging markets over the next few years. But further out, we think that worrying public debt trajectories in some places (Brazil and South... 13th October 2020 · 15 mins read
Global Economics Focus Lasting blow to supply capacity is not inevitable It is by no means inevitable that the coronavirus crisis puts a big permanent hole in the supply capacity of economies (i.e. their ability to produce goods and services). With the right government... 29th June 2020 · 28 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus The coronavirus and the emerging world The impact of the coronavirus means aggregate EM GDP is likely to have contracted in q/q terms for the first time since the global financial crisis in Q1. If the outbreak is contained quickly, most... 12th February 2020 · 17 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Key calls for EMs in 2020 2020 will be a year in which EM GDP growth edges up and many major central banks catch investors by surprise. This Focus outlines our key calls for next year. 18th December 2019 · 13 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus How will the future of globalisation play out? While the downside risks of a global trade war are often overstated, we think the bigger concern is that the world splits into competing regional blocs that do not cooperate on trade or investment... 22nd October 2019 · 19 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Does globalisation have a future? Globalisation has peaked, with any further major integration unlikely. In fact, a policy-driven period of de-globalisation is increasingly likely. 15th October 2019 · 33 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Globalisation and its effects on the world economy We estimate that the current wave of globalisation is responsible for around a third of the pick-up in global per capita income growth since 1990. Almost all of that reflects an improvement in... 10th October 2019 · 22 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Lessons from the history of globalisation History shows that waves of globalisation are driven by both technology and policy, but protectionist shifts alone tend to end them. In some cases, like in the 1970s, a moderate pushback by... 8th October 2019 · 20 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Four points on EM political risk premiums The key determinants of EM political risk premiums are the type of political shock and the strength of an economy’s external balance sheet. With this in mind, Ukraine and Argentina have the greatest... 1st May 2019 · 13 mins read
