Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Mar.) The National Bank of Poland (NBP) left interest rates on hold again today, at 5.75%, and the scope for monetary easing this year looks relatively limited. We still think there is a possibility that a... 6th March 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Feb.) The stronger-than-expected rise in Turkish inflation to 67.1% y/y in February adds to our concerns given that it comes on the back of a large increase in inflation in January and the strength of... 4th March 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Manufacturing PMIs (Feb.) The manufacturing PMIs out of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) generally ticked up last month, but still suggest that industrial sectors remained weak. In contrast, the increases in the PMIs in Turkey... 1st March 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey GDP (Q4 2023) The pick-up in Turkish GDP growth to 1.0% q/q in Q4 was driven by a rebound in private consumption and suggests that aggressive monetary tightening has yet to take the sting out of domestic demand... 29th February 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Activity Data (Feb.) The latest activity data for January suggest that Russia’s economy maintained solid growth at the start of this year, which supports our forecast for above-potential GDP growth of 3.0% over the course... 28th February 2024 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Feb.) The European Commission's Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) generally fell in February, but still point to regional GDP growth strengthening in Q1. 28th February 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (Feb.) 27th February 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Israel Interest Rate Announcement (Feb.) Israel’s central bank opted to leave interest rates on hold at 4.50% today – in contrast to the consensus view for a cut – and the communications continued to emphasise upside inflation risks... 26th February 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Interest Rate Announcement (Feb.) The hawkish statement accompanying the Turkish central bank’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged at 45.00% today supports our view that a shift to monetary easing remains some way off and we... 22nd February 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Activity Data (Jan.) Poland’s activity data for January suggest that the reacceleration in wage growth at the start of this year supported domestic demand, while the export-orientated industrial sector struggled. We think... 22nd February 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Israel GDP (Q4 2023) The 19.4% q/q annualised contraction in Israeli GDP in Q4 was much worse than had been expected and highlights the extent of the hit from the Hamas attacks and the war in Gaza. While a recovery looks... 19th February 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Interest Rate Announcement (Feb.) Russia’s central bank (CBR) left its policy rate on hold at 16.00% as expected today and we think that inflation pressures will prevent it from cutting interest rates for most of this year. 16th February 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Czech Consumer Prices (Jan.) We’d expected a large fall in Czech inflation in January, but the collapse from 6.9% y/y in December to just 2.3% y/y shows that price pressures are dissipating even more quickly than we’d anticipated... 15th February 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Consumer Prices (Jan.) The stabilisation in Russian inflation in January, at 7.4% y/y, should provide cover for the central bank to leave its policy rate unchanged at 16.00% at its meeting on Friday, rather than continue... 14th February 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Central & Eastern Europe GDP (Q4 2023) Q4 GDP figures out of Central and Eastern Europe showed that the region ended last year on a weak note, but the outlook for 2024 looks brighter. While soft external demand is likely to remain a drag... 14th February 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Romania Interest Rate Announcement (Feb.) The National Bank of Romania (NBR) left its policy rate on hold at 7.00% again today and, while interest rate cuts are likely to start around mid-year, we think that monetary easing will be less... 13th February 2024 · 2 mins read
