Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Activity Data (Nov.) Poland’s activity data for November suggest that the economic recovery stalled last month, but we think that this is only a temporary blip. We still expect GDP growth to strengthen from around 0.5% in... 21st December 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (Dec.) The Hungarian central bank (MNB) cut its base rate by 75bp again today (to 10.75%), and we think it will probably continue to lower rates at this pace over its next few meetings. However, we expect... 19th December 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Israel Consumer Prices (Nov.) The larger-than-expected fall in Israeli inflation to 3.3% y/y in November suggests that the inflationary impact of the war and the sharp rise in government spending have been limited so far. This... 15th December 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Interest Rate Announcement (Dec.) 15th December 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Czech Consumer Prices (Nov.) The fall in Czech inflation to 7.3% y/y in November means that the start of a monetary easing cycle at next week’s policy meeting is still very much a close call. But at this stage we think it’s most... 11th December 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Consumer Prices (Nov.) The rise in Russian inflation to 7.5% y/y in November is likely to be followed by further increases in the coming months as the economy continues to overheat. We think this CPI release supports the... 8th December 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Dec.) The National Bank of Poland (NBP) left interest rates on hold as expected today, and we think the easing cycle will remain on pause until the end of Q1. With the economy recovering and the... 6th December 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Nov.) The small rise in Turkish inflation to 62.0% y/y in November adds to evidence that inflation pressures in the economy continue to cool. We think the central bank’s monetary tightening cycle is likely... 4th December 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Manufacturing PMIs (Nov.) The manufacturing PMIs in Central and Eastern Europe rose in November suggesting that industrial sectors in the region are turning a corner, while Russia’s PMI remained near multi-year highs. That... 1st December 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Consumer Prices (Nov. Flash Estimate) & GDP (Q3) The small fall in Polish inflation to 6.5% y/y in November is likely to mark the start of a slower phase for the disinflation process over the coming months. Against this backdrop, we think the... 30th November 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey GDP (Q3 2023) The sharp slowdown in Turkish GDP growth to 0.3% q/q in Q3, together with more timely figures for Q4, suggest that the economy is rebalancing in response to the policy tightening this year. With the... 30th November 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Activity Data (Oct.) Russia’s economy looks to have started Q4 on fairly solid footing and we think GDP growth of 3.0-3.3% this year is now highly likely. Support from loose fiscal policy and a strong labour market should... 29th November 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Nov.) The European Commission's Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) generally rose in November, and suggest that activity in the region has continued to recover in Q4... 29th November 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Israel Interest Rate Announcement (Nov.) Israel’s central bank left interest rates on hold at 4.75% again today and the communications continued to emphasise risks to the inflation outlook. But policymakers provided the first hint that an... 27th November 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Interest Rate Announcement (Nov.) Turkey’s central bank (CBRT) delivered another 500bp interest rate hike, to 40.0%, at today’s meeting and suggested that it is very close to the end of the tightening cycle. A final 250bp hike in... 23rd November 2023 · 2 mins read