Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Activity Data (May) The latest activity data suggest that Russia’s economy continued to motor along in May, driven by stronger growth in industry. The economy is clearly overheating and this continues to fuel inflation... 3rd July 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Jul.) The decision by Poland’s central bank (NBP) to leave its policy rate at 5.75% today came as no surprise and we doubt that policymakers will have scope to lower interest rates until the middle of next... 3rd July 2024 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Jun.) The larger-than-expected decline in Turkish inflation in June marks the start of a new phase of the disinflation process, and we are likely to see much steeper falls in the y/y inflation rate in July... 3rd July 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Emerging Europe Manufacturing PMIs (Jun.) The manufacturing PMIs for June provide encouraging signs that a rebalancing of Turkey’s economy is underway, with domestic demand weakening and inflation pressures softening. But in Russia, the... 1st July 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Czech Interest Rate Announcement (Jun.) The decision by the Czech National Bank to deliver another 50bp cut to its policy rate today, to 4.75%, was a dovish surprise to most analysts (although not ourselves). That said, the post-meeting... 27th June 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Interest Rate Announcement (Jun.) The decision by the Turkish central bank (CBRT) to leave its main policy rate on hold again today, at 50.00%, was widely expected, and the continued hawkish communications support our view that... 27th June 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Jun.) The European Commission's Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe suggest that regional growth strengthened at the end of Q2, with our regional-weighted measure of sentiment... 27th June 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Activity Data (May) The Polish activity data for May were a mixed bag with retail sales bouncing back, while industry suffered a renewed contraction. With domestic demand likely to stay strong over the coming months, we... 24th June 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (Jun.) The communications accompanying the decision by the Hungarian central bank to cut its base rate by a smaller 25bp today, to 7.00%, were fairly hawkish and support our view that the base rate will only... 18th June 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Consumer Prices (May) The further rise in Russian in inflation to 8.3% y/y in May was stronger than expected, and means that an interest rate hike at the central bank’s next meeting in July now looks all but certain. While... 14th June 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Interest Rate Announcement (Jun.) Russia’s central bank (CBR) left its key policy rate on hold at 16.00% but delivered a much more hawkish message at today’s meeting. Inflation concerns are likely to persist for some time and we think... 7th June 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Activity Data (Apr.) Russia’s economy appears to have had a slightly softer start to Q2, with industrial production and retail sales growth both slowing in April. Still, the latest indicators for May have remained strong... 5th June 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Jun.) Poland’s central bank (NBP) left its policy rate on hold at 5.75% today and policymakers are likely to maintain fairly hawkish communications as inflation rebounds in the second half of the year. We... 5th June 2024 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Manufacturing PMIs (May) The manufacturing PMIs for May show a divergence in the region, with conditions improving slightly in Czechia and Russia’s economy continuing to boom. But industry weakened sharply in Poland and... 3rd June 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Consumer Prices (May) The stronger-than-expected rise in Turkish inflation to 75.45% y/y in May (consensus 74.8%) is slightly disappointing. It had looked like price pressures were easing in recent months, but the 3.4% m/m... 3rd June 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey GDP (Q1 2024) The strength in Turkey’s economy in Q1 – GDP expanded by a whopping 2.4% q/q – was driven by a large boost from net trade while private consumption growth slowed sharply. This offers signs that the... 31st May 2024 · 2 mins read
