Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Russia GDP (Q2) and Consumer Prices (Jul.)

The slowdown in Russian GDP growth in Q2, to 4.0% y/y, suggests that the economy has lost a bit of momentum. But overheating pressures remain alive and the increase in inflation to 9.1% y/y in July...

9th August 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Romania Interest Rate Announcement (Aug.)

7th August 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Turkey Consumer Prices (Jul.)

The large fall in headline inflation in Turkey in July will provide some comfort to the central bank that the disinflation process remains on track, although it will take time for policymakers to be...

5th August 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Czech Interest Rate Announcement (Aug.)

Czech National Bank Governor Michl sounded fairly cautious in his guidance about the future course of the easing cycle in the post-meeting press conference today. But the post-meeting statement struck...

1st August 2024 · 3 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Manufacturing PMIs (Jul.)

The manufacturing PMIs for July suggest that industrial sectors lost a bit of momentum in Turkey and Russia at the start of Q3, although demand conditions still appear very strong in Russia. In both...

1st August 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Russia Activity Data (Jun.)

Russia’s economy lost a bit of steam in June, but it still looks like GDP growth over Q2 as a whole was very strong, with growth tracking at 4.5-5.0% y/y.

31st July 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Economic Sentiment Indicators (Jul.)

The European Commission's Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe generally fell in July, and our regional-weighted measure hit a five-month low, providing additional evidence...

30th July 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Hungary & Czechia GDP (Q2)

The weaker-than-expected Q2 GDP data out of Czechia and Hungary show that weak external demand is still acting as a constraint on the speed of recoveries in Central Europe. While we expect growth to...

30th July 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Russia Interest Rate Announcement (Jul.)

Russia’s central bank (CBR) stepped up to the plate with a 200bp hike to its key policy rate today, to 18.00%, in response to the overheating economy and a renewed surge in inflation. While we think...

26th July 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (Jul.)

The Hungarian central bank (MNB) cut interest rates by 25bp again today, to 6.75%, and the post-meeting press conference suggests that, while there are some MPC members who want to pause the easing...

23rd July 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Turkey Interest Rate Announcement (Jul.)

Turkey’s central bank left its key policy rate on hold today, at 50.00%, and the communications accompanying the decision suggest that interest rate cuts are still some way off. While most analysts...

23rd July 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Poland Activity Data (Jun.)

Poland’s retail sales data released today were slightly weaker than expected, but the big picture is that the whole set of activity data for June suggest that the economic recovery has remained...

22nd July 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Russia Consumer Prices (Jun.)

The rise in Russian inflation to 8.6% y/y in June, alongside weekly figures suggesting that an even larger rise is possible in July, seals the deal on an interest rate hike later this month. We now...

10th July 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Israel Interest Rate Announcement (Jul.)

Israel’s central bank (BoI) left its policy rate on hold at 4.50% as expected today and interest rates are likely to remain on hold for the time being while fiscal, inflation and geopolitical risks...

8th July 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Romania Interest Rate Announcement (Jul.)

Romania’s central bank (NBR) started its easing cycle at today’s meeting with a 25bp rate cut, to 6.75%. But with inflation and fiscal risks still high, this is likely to be a slow and gradual cycle...

5th July 2024 · 2 mins read