Emerging Europe Rapid Response Manufacturing PMIs (Apr.) The weak set of manufacturing PMIs out of Central and Eastern Europe for April suggest that industrial sectors remained a drag on the regional recovery at the start of Q2. In Turkey and Russia, the... 2nd May 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Hungary & Czechia GDP (Q1) The slightly better-than-expected Q1 GDP figures out of Hungary and Czechia suggest that economic recoveries had a little more momentum at the start of this year than we previously thought and that... 30th April 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Apr.) The European Commission's Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe were a mixed bag in April, but our regional GDP-weighted measure of sentiment rose to a fresh two-year high... 29th April 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Interest Rate Announcement (Apr.) The hawkish communications accompanying the decision by the Russian central bank (CBR) to leave its key policy rate on hold today suggests that monetary easing will probably arrive later than we... 26th April 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Interest Rate Announcement (Apr.) Turkey’s central bank left its policy rate on hold at 50.00% at today’s meeting, but the statement continued to strike a hawkish tone amid persistent inflation risks in the economy. While we think the... 25th April 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (Apr.) The communications accompanying the decision by the Hungarian central bank (MNB) to opt for a smaller 50bp cut to its base rate today, to 7.75%, provides support to our view that its monetary easing... 23rd April 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Activity Data (Mar.) Poland’s weaker-than-expected activity data for March suggest the risk to our forecast for GDP growth of 2.5% y/y in Q1 (up from 1.0% y/y in Q4) are tilted to the downside. While we maintain our above... 23rd April 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Consumer Prices (Mar.) The stabilisation in Russian inflation at 7.7% y/y in March was in line with expectations and adds to evidence that inflation pressures have continued to cool in recent months. Central bank governor... 10th April 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Israel Interest Rate Announcement (Apr.) The decision by the Bank of Israel (BoI) to leave its policy rate unchanged at 4.50% (rather than cut) for the second meeting in a row underscores policymakers’ concerns about the large budget deficit... 8th April 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia GDP (Q4) & Activity Data (Feb.) The 4.9% y/y rise in Russian GDP in Q4 was slightly below expectations but it followed an upwards revision to growth in Q3 (to 5.7%) and suggests that the economy continued to run hot at the end of... 5th April 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Apr.) The National Bank of Poland (NBP) left its policy rate on hold at 5.75% today as it looked through the recent sharp drop in inflation in March. We think a rebound in inflation in the second half of... 4th April 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Romania Interest Rate Announcement (Apr.) Romania’s central bank left its policy rate on hold at 7.00% as expected again today but with inflation likely to fall further, a monetary easing cycle is probably just around the corner. We maintain... 4th April 2024 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Mar.) The increase in Turkish inflation, to 68.5% y/y in March, will keep pressure on the central bank to hike interest rates further at its meeting later this month. We maintain our forecast for a 250bp... 3rd April 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Manufacturing PMIs (Mar.) The manufacturing PMIs rose across Central and Eastern Europe in March but they remain consistent with a relatively weak recovery. 2nd April 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Mar.) The European Commission's Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe generally rose in March, and support our view that regional GDP growth strengthened at the start of this year. 27th March 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (Mar.) The decision by the Hungarian central bank to slow the pace of its easing cycle today, with a 75bp cut to its base rate (to 8.25%) will probably be followed by a further slowdown in the pace of the... 26th March 2024 · 1 min read
