Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Activity Data (Apr.) Russia’s economy appears to have had a slightly softer start to Q2, with industrial production and retail sales growth both slowing in April. Still, the latest indicators for May have remained strong... 5th June 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Jun.) Poland’s central bank (NBP) left its policy rate on hold at 5.75% today and policymakers are likely to maintain fairly hawkish communications as inflation rebounds in the second half of the year. We... 5th June 2024 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Manufacturing PMIs (May) The manufacturing PMIs for May show a divergence in the region, with conditions improving slightly in Czechia and Russia’s economy continuing to boom. But industry weakened sharply in Poland and... 3rd June 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Consumer Prices (May) The stronger-than-expected rise in Turkish inflation to 75.45% y/y in May (consensus 74.8%) is slightly disappointing. It had looked like price pressures were easing in recent months, but the 3.4% m/m... 3rd June 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey GDP (Q1 2024) The strength in Turkey’s economy in Q1 – GDP expanded by a whopping 2.4% q/q – was driven by a large boost from net trade while private consumption growth slowed sharply. This offers signs that the... 31st May 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (May) The European Commission's Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) were a mixed bag in May and our regional-weighted measure edged down slightly. Even so, that still leaves... 30th May 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Interest Rate Announcement (May) Turkey’s central bank left its main policy rate unchanged at 50.00% again today and the statement continued to emphasise the need to keep interest rates high for a prolonged period. While the... 23rd May 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Activity Data (Apr.) Poland’s activity data for April revealed that retail sales growth softened a bit more than expected last month, but that the weakness in industry in March was just a temporary blip. On balance, we... 23rd May 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (May) The decision by the Hungarian central bank (MNB) to cut its base rate by 50bp again today, to 7.25%, will be followed by more cautious monetary easing over the rest of this year. We currently forecast... 21st May 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia GDP (Q1) and Consumer Prices (Apr.) The 5.4% y/y rise in Russian GDP in Q1 was a touch stronger than expected and, taken together with the rise in inflation in April, adds further evidence to the view that the war effort is causing the... 17th May 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Israel GDP (Q1 2024) The 14.1% q/q annualised rebound in Israeli GDP in Q1 was slightly weaker than expected and left GDP almost 3% below its pre-war level. The latest indicators suggest that activity is likely to recover... 16th May 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Central & Eastern Europe GDP (Q1 2024) The Q1 GDP figures released out of Central and Eastern Europe this morning show that growth strengthened across most of the region at the start of this year, and we expect a further modest pick up... 15th May 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Romania Interest Rate Announcement (May) Romania’s central bank (NBR) left its policy rate on hold at 7.00% today, in contrast to consensus expectations for a cut but in line with our own forecast. With inflation pressures falling more... 13th May 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Interest Rate Announcement (May) Poland’s central bank (NBP) left its policy rate on hold as expected at 5.75% today and we don’t expect any change for some time. Still, there is now a growing possibility of an interest rate cut... 9th May 2024 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Apr.) The slightly smaller-than-expected rise in Turkish inflation in April to 69.8% y/y (consensus 70.3%) offers encouraging signs that price pressures have softened again. The 3.2% m/m increase was... 3rd May 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Czech Interest Rate Announcement (May) The communications accompanying the decision by the Czech National Bank to cut its policy rate by 50bp again today (to 5.25%) were slightly more hawkish than expected, but we still think that a... 2nd May 2024 · 2 mins read
