Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Activity Data (Jul.) The latest Russian industrial production and retail sales figures for July were a mixed bag and suggest that the economy maintained a steady pace of growth at the start of this quarter. But we still... 28th August 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Israel Interest Rate Announcement (Aug.) The decision by the Bank of Israel (BoI) to leave its policy rate on hold again today (at 4.50%) rather than resume the easing cycle, reflects policymakers’ concerns with supply-side constraints in... 28th August 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (Aug.) The Hungarian central bank suggested that its decision to leave the policy rate on hold today, at 6.75%, was likely to mark a temporary pause in the easing cycle, rather than an end to it. Even so, we... 27th August 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Activity Data (Jul.) The weaker-than-expected batch of Polish activity figures for July is more likely to be a blip than the start of a soft patch. We remain comfortable with our view that Poland’s economy will expand by... 22nd August 2024 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Interest Rate Announcement (Aug.) The Turkish central bank (CBRT) left its main policy rate unchanged again today, at 50.00%, and offered little sign that it will soon start an easing cycle. While most other analysts expect monetary... 20th August 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland GDP (Q2 2024) The larger-than-expected pick-up in Polish GDP growth in Q2, to 1.5% q/q (from 0.8% in Q1), suggests that the risks to our forecast for GDP to expand by 3% over the year as a whole are now tilted to... 14th August 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia GDP (Q2) and Consumer Prices (Jul.) The slowdown in Russian GDP growth in Q2, to 4.0% y/y, suggests that the economy has lost a bit of momentum. But overheating pressures remain alive and the increase in inflation to 9.1% y/y in July... 9th August 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Romania Interest Rate Announcement (Aug.) 7th August 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Jul.) The large fall in headline inflation in Turkey in July will provide some comfort to the central bank that the disinflation process remains on track, although it will take time for policymakers to be... 5th August 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Czech Interest Rate Announcement (Aug.) Czech National Bank Governor Michl sounded fairly cautious in his guidance about the future course of the easing cycle in the post-meeting press conference today. But the post-meeting statement struck... 1st August 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Manufacturing PMIs (Jul.) The manufacturing PMIs for July suggest that industrial sectors lost a bit of momentum in Turkey and Russia at the start of Q3, although demand conditions still appear very strong in Russia. In both... 1st August 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Activity Data (Jun.) Russia’s economy lost a bit of steam in June, but it still looks like GDP growth over Q2 as a whole was very strong, with growth tracking at 4.5-5.0% y/y. 31st July 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Jul.) The European Commission's Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe generally fell in July, and our regional-weighted measure hit a five-month low, providing additional evidence... 30th July 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Hungary & Czechia GDP (Q2) The weaker-than-expected Q2 GDP data out of Czechia and Hungary show that weak external demand is still acting as a constraint on the speed of recoveries in Central Europe. While we expect growth to... 30th July 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Interest Rate Announcement (Jul.) Russia’s central bank (CBR) stepped up to the plate with a 200bp hike to its key policy rate today, to 18.00%, in response to the overheating economy and a renewed surge in inflation. While we think... 26th July 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (Jul.) The Hungarian central bank (MNB) cut interest rates by 25bp again today, to 6.75%, and the post-meeting press conference suggests that, while there are some MPC members who want to pause the easing... 23rd July 2024 · 2 mins read
