Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Activity Data (Oct.) Russia’s economy looks to have started Q4 on fairly solid footing and we think GDP growth of 3.0-3.3% this year is now highly likely. Support from loose fiscal policy and a strong labour market should... 29th November 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Nov.) The European Commission's Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) generally rose in November, and suggest that activity in the region has continued to recover in Q4... 29th November 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Israel Interest Rate Announcement (Nov.) Israel’s central bank left interest rates on hold at 4.75% again today and the communications continued to emphasise risks to the inflation outlook. But policymakers provided the first hint that an... 27th November 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Interest Rate Announcement (Nov.) Turkey’s central bank (CBRT) delivered another 500bp interest rate hike, to 40.0%, at today’s meeting and suggested that it is very close to the end of the tightening cycle. A final 250bp hike in... 23rd November 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Activity Data (Oct.) The batch of Polish activity data for October provide clearer signs that the economy has turned a corner and that a recovery is taking hold, driven by consumer spending. We expect this to continue... 22nd November 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (Nov.) The Hungarian central bank (MNB) cut its base rate by another 75bp (to 11.50%) as expected today, and we think it will continue to lower rates in similar steps until the end of Q1. That said, with the... 21st November 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Israel GDP (Q3) The slight slowdown in Israeli GDP growth to 2.8% q/q annualised in Q3 was more or less in line with expectations but comes before a likely sharp drop in Q4 amid the impact of the war with Hamas. We... 16th November 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia GDP (Q3) The rise in Russian GDP growth to 5.5% y/y in Q3 was larger than expected and adds to evidence that the economy continued to overheat last quarter. With fiscal policy set to loosen further and... 15th November 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Central & Eastern Europe GDP (Q3 2023) Q3 GDP figures out of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) showed a mixed performance across the region, but as a whole CEE economies appear to be past the worst of the downturn. With households’ real... 14th November 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Activity Data (Sep.) Turkish retail sales and industrial production both fell again in m/m terms in September and GDP growth looks to have slowed sharply in the third quarter as a whole. The impact of policy tightening... 13th November 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Consumer Prices (Oct.) The further chunky rise in Russian inflation to 6.7% y/y in October provides additional evidence that demand is outstripping supply in Russia’s economy. We think that inflation will continue to rise... 10th November 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Nov.) 8th November 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Romania Interest Rate Announcement (Nov.) 8th November 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Oct.) Turkish inflation unexpectedly fell to 61.4% y/y in October and while we think inflation is likely to rise again in the coming months, the peak is probably not too far away. The central bank’s... 3rd November 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Czech Interest Rate Announcement (Nov.) The Czech National Bank’s (CNB’s) decision to leave interest rates on hold again today, at 7.00%, was accompanied by communications which leave the chances of an interest rate cut at the next meeting... 2nd November 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Activity Data (Sep.) Russian retail sales continued to expand at a strong clip in September, but industrial production growth was less impressive. Higher interest rates and inflation will weigh on activity in the coming... 1st November 2023 · 2 mins read
