Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Oil lower, Russia’s response, Polish rates Lower oil prices will benefit most countries in Emerging Europe and, for the major loser, Russia, oil at $60pb is manageable – although we do think that it will agree with Saudi Arabia to cut oil... 30th November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly PiS backs down in EU row, Polish hawks getting louder This week’s U-turn by Poland’s government over a controversial judicial reform suggests that policymakers are adopting a less divisive stance in the run-up to next year’s elections. While this is... 23rd November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russian oil output jumps, CEE economies gather pace The Russian government seems to have softened its line about cutting oil output to prop up prices this week, but given that output surged in October, any cuts would have a limited economic impact... 16th November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Regional growth slows further, inflation rises GDP data to be released next week are likely to confirm that growth across Emerging Europe continued to weaken in Q3. Meanwhile, figures published this week showed that inflation picked up in most of... 9th November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly CBRT paves way for cuts, Polish industry stays soft in Q4 The latest comments from Turkey’s central bank suggest that policymakers are considering unwinding some of the recent rate hikes, reinforcing our view that the MPC isn’t serious about tackling the... 2nd November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Poor election results to prompt Polish fiscal splurge The worse-than-expected performance of the ruling PiS party in Poland’s local elections last weekend is likely to prompt policymakers in Warsaw to ramp up social spending ahead of next year’s... 26th October 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Currency rallies ease pressure on central banks The recent rallies in the Russian ruble and the Turkish lira have added weight to our view that central banks in both countries will refrain from tightening policy further when they meet next week... 19th October 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Markets more hawkish on Hungary, Turkish lira strengthens September’s strong Hungarian inflation data – released on Tuesday – caused investors to raise their interest rate expectations, coming round to our more hawkish view. Meanwhile, a fall in inflation... 12th October 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia’s rising oil output, Turkish lira back under pressure The sharp rise in Russian oil output in September, and talk this week of further increases, suggests that the recovery in Russia’s economy has further to run. The Turkish lira has come under pressure... 5th October 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkish and Russian markets start to settle Turkish financial markets rallied this week amid signs of improving foreign relations and easing strains in the banking sector, but the latest data releases add to the evidence that the economy is... 28th September 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey underwhelms, Russia budget, Hungary rates reaction The New Economy Program presented by Turkey’s finance minister on Thursday included more realistic economic forecasts, but it failed to build on the central bank’s interest rate hike last week and... 21st September 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey hikes, Czech rates in focus, Hungary in trouble The aggressive interest rate hike in Turkey on Thursday has soothed the markets, but President Erdogan’s comments today reinforce our fears that he will put pressure on the central bank to reverse... 14th September 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Central banks hint at rate hikes, Turkish GDP figures Central banks in both Russia and Turkey created a stir this week by raising the prospect of rate hikes, but we think that the degree of tightening in Turkey will disappoint markets and policymakers in... 7th September 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkish inflation to soar, Ukraine on the rocks Turkish CPI figures due on Monday are likely to show that inflation rose to its highest level since 2003, but government pressure means that this is unlikely to prompt the central bank to hike... 31st August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Ruble hit by sanctions, MNB to change tack The Russian ruble came under pressure this week as investors worried that US sanctions will be ramped up. For now, though, we don’t think that this will have a significant near-term impact on the... 24th August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Lira rebounds, Putin policy wobbles The Turkish lira has recovered lost ground since Monday, although policymakers have only done the bare minimum in response to the crisis. There have been some positive noises on fiscal policy, yet... 17th August 2018 · 1 min read
