Emerging Europe Economics Weekly No-deal Brexit fears, political instability in Romania The growing likelihood of a no-deal Brexit is coming at a time when Central Europe is starting to be affected by weakness in the euro-zone and a more general slowdown in the global economy. The Czech... 30th August 2019 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey tries to boost lending, Polish MPC not rushing to cut Turkish financial markets have come under pressure this week amid concerns that a shift in the central bank’s reserve requirement policy heralds more aggressive monetary easing. These developments... 23rd August 2019 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly A decent Q2 for the region, Turkey & market turmoil The preliminary Q2 GDP figures released this week showed that Russia staged a recovery, while strong domestic demand helped growth in Central Europe to hold up well. But the early evidence suggests... 16th August 2019 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Industry weakness, Q2 GDP & Turkey’s Bank re-shuffle Q2 GDP data due next are likely to show that growth in Central Europe remained strong. But the slump in the region’s industrial production in June provided the first clear sign that weakness in the... 9th August 2019 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey’s Inflation Report, Russia sanctions, Polish inflation The Turkish central bank’s optimistic inflation forecasts add weight to our view that monetary easing is likely to go too far and will ultimately have to reverse course. Elsewhere, although the rise... 2nd August 2019 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkish rates, Ukraine elections, Czech tightening cycle Turkish financial markets took Thursday’s larger-than-expected interest rate cut in their stride but we don’t think that this resilience will last. Investors seems to be coming round to our view that... 26th July 2019 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey to embark on aggressive rate cuts, Ukraine elections Comments this week from Turkey’s new central bank governor, Murat Uysal, and President Erdogan suggest that an interest rate cut at next week’s meeting will be followed by further aggressive easing in... 19th July 2019 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Erdogan at the wheel, inflation eases in CEE Developments in Turkey over the past week highlight that all levers of economic policy have effectively been centralised in the hands of one man – President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The reaction in... 12th July 2019 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly OPEC deal won’t derail Russia, lira rally may be short-lived The rollover of OPEC’s oil production quotas – announced this week – will be an unhelpful headwind for Russia’s economy, but it is unlikely to prevent growth from picking up in the second half of 2019... 5th July 2019 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Fiscal concerns in Turkey, Hungary’s current account Investors in Turkey will be nervously waiting to see if President Erdogan can persuade President Trump at the G20 to approve Turkey’s purchase of a Russian missile defence system, lifting the threat... 28th June 2019 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Istanbul election won’t lead to turnaround in policymaking This weekend’s re-run of the Istanbul mayoral election will dominate the headlines in the coming days, but it looks like the result will do little to curtail the deterioration in Turkish economic... 21st June 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey’s S-400 deal, Russia’s sanction risk Turkish assets look set to come under more pressure in the coming weeks as the government pushes ahead with its plans to purchase a Russian missile defence system. Meanwhile, comments from Russia’s... 14th June 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Czech political upheaval, Russia-China ties Protests in the Czech Republic this week calling for the resignation of Prime Minister Andrej Babiš have raised the chance of a government collapse. But even if political uncertainty builds, there is... 7th June 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Hungarian stimulus, Ukraine & IMF, Turkey’s double-dip The fiscal stimulus package unveiled in Hungary this week adds to reasons to think that the economy will grow more quickly than most anticipate over the course of this year. Meanwhile, positive... 31st May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey capital controls, Russia’s looming rate cut Steps taken this week by Turkish officials to shore up the lira could be the first move towards the imposition of capital controls, but if anything these are likely to store up larger falls in the... 24th May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly CEE GDP, Turkey fiscal stimulus & Russian tainted oil An impressive batch of GDP data from Central and Eastern Europe, released this week, added to the evidence that strong domestic demand is offsetting external weakness. Elsewhere, Turkey’s budget... 17th May 2019 · 1 min read