Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Nord Stream 2, Turkish inflation, Romania’s budget The Danish government’s decision to approve the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline this week is widely seen as a victory for Russia, who could potentially halt energy supplies to Ukraine. But with the... 1st November 2019 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Doves in flight, Turkey-West relations fracturing The raft of interest rate cuts and dovish noises out of central banks this week support our view that monetary policy will remain loose or be loosened further across most of the region in the near... 25th October 2019 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Halkbank charges highlight Turkey’s banking sector risks The five-day ceasefire in Syria agreed by Turkey and the US yesterday has prompted a rally in Turkish markets and probably means that the central bank will press ahead with another large interest rate... 18th October 2019 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey sanctions threat rises, Romania’s government falls The threat of sanctions against Turkey is growing and, given the context of the country’s large external debts, the fallout for local financial markets could prove to be more severe than that the... 11th October 2019 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Poland’s CHF-mortgage loans & Turkey’s growth plan The ruling by the European Court of Justice that Polish households can potentially convert their Swiss franc-denominated mortgage loans into zloty could result in bank losses, but there probably... 4th October 2019 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Central banks downplay expectations for more dovish policy The more hawkish-than-expected communications from central banks across the region this week suggest that markets should not get carried away with expectations for more accommodative monetary policy... 27th September 2019 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey’s banks, Russia’s fiscal stimulus The decision by Turkey’s banking regulator to force banks to reclassify some of their loans as non-performing will raise concerns about the health of loan books, but we think that there are bigger... 20th September 2019 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Poland’s minimum wage plans, ECB stimulus The sharp increases in the minimum wage proposed by Poland’s ruling Law and Justice party have grabbed the headlines and raised concerns about the inflation outlook. But we doubt these measures will... 13th September 2019 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Ukraine optimism overdone, robust growth in CEE Ukraine’s President Volodymr Zelensky has hit the ground running in his bid to push key reforms through the Rada. Markets have taken these developments, as well as the strong Q2 GDP figures... 6th September 2019 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly No-deal Brexit fears, political instability in Romania The growing likelihood of a no-deal Brexit is coming at a time when Central Europe is starting to be affected by weakness in the euro-zone and a more general slowdown in the global economy. The Czech... 30th August 2019 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey tries to boost lending, Polish MPC not rushing to cut Turkish financial markets have come under pressure this week amid concerns that a shift in the central bank’s reserve requirement policy heralds more aggressive monetary easing. These developments... 23rd August 2019 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly A decent Q2 for the region, Turkey & market turmoil The preliminary Q2 GDP figures released this week showed that Russia staged a recovery, while strong domestic demand helped growth in Central Europe to hold up well. But the early evidence suggests... 16th August 2019 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Industry weakness, Q2 GDP & Turkey’s Bank re-shuffle Q2 GDP data due next are likely to show that growth in Central Europe remained strong. But the slump in the region’s industrial production in June provided the first clear sign that weakness in the... 9th August 2019 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey’s Inflation Report, Russia sanctions, Polish inflation The Turkish central bank’s optimistic inflation forecasts add weight to our view that monetary easing is likely to go too far and will ultimately have to reverse course. Elsewhere, although the rise... 2nd August 2019 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkish rates, Ukraine elections, Czech tightening cycle Turkish financial markets took Thursday’s larger-than-expected interest rate cut in their stride but we don’t think that this resilience will last. Investors seems to be coming round to our view that... 26th July 2019 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey to embark on aggressive rate cuts, Ukraine elections Comments this week from Turkey’s new central bank governor, Murat Uysal, and President Erdogan suggest that an interest rate cut at next week’s meeting will be followed by further aggressive easing in... 19th July 2019 · 6 mins read
