Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Syria tensions, coronavirus fears, Turkish credit growth Concerns about the coronavirus outbreak have hit global financial markets this week, but assets in Turkey and Russia have taken a further leg down due to tensions between the two arising from the... 28th February 2020 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkish government eyes Isbank, EU budget problems The Turkish government’s plans to transfer the opposition party’s stake in a major bank to the Treasury adds to the evidence that it is trying to gain more leverage over the banking sector. This is... 21st February 2020 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Central Europe inflation, Sberbank sale, Turkish lira Inflation rose above the upper level of central banks’ target ranges in Central Europe in January for the first time in over seven years but, while the Czech central bank hiked rates last week, it... 14th February 2020 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Romanian politics, Poland’s judiciary, coronavirus impact Romania’s three-month old government collapsed this week, increasing the chance of early elections this year which would bring forward much-needed fiscal consolidation. That would ease investors’... 7th February 2020 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly CBRT’s optimism, Central Europe to slow further In its latest Inflation Report, Turkey’s central bank stuck to its forecast for inflation to fall back in 2020-21, but this rests on the farfetched assumption that a negative output gap will persist... 31st January 2020 · 10 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkish inflation, Russia’s government, US tariff threat Comments from Turkey’s central bank governor this week suggest that further interest rate cuts lie in store. This is premised on the view that inflation will fall back, which is likely to prove... 24th January 2020 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Putin’s political storm, Central European rates Russia’s political drama has triggered a flurry of speculation about how President Putin plans to wield power beyond the end of his term in 2024. We see nothing in this to change our downbeat long... 17th January 2020 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey’s banking risks, boom time in Hungary Turkey’s financial markets have rebounded in recent days, partly because fears of a US-Iran war have eased but also because local banks have sounded more bullish on their own performance this year... 10th January 2020 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russian inflation, Polish MPC, IMF slates Turkey The drop in Russian inflation in December, combined with comments from the central bank governor, support our view that there will be at least one more interest rate cut in the current easing cycle... 3rd January 2020 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Weak Turkish lira, Polish inflation, what to look for in 2020 The Turkish lira has been one of the worst performing currencies this month and this probably sets the scene for next year. This is a key reason why we think that the central bank will hike interest... 20th December 2019 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Ukraine’s IMF deal, Russian GDP & CEE inflation Ukraine is on the cusp of securing a new IMF deal but history suggests that the government will struggle to meet the Fund’s demands, which could put the recent rally in the bond market into reverse... 13th December 2019 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey’s domestic recovery & Hungary’s new super bond GDP and inflation figures released out of Turkey this week provided familiar signs that growth is increasingly unbalanced and we think that the central bank will ultimately be forced to reverse its... 6th December 2019 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkish policymaking worsens, CEE currencies slip Interventionist policymaking in Turkey has come back onto the radar this week. This is likely to lead to a misallocation of resources and adds to the reasons to think that the country’s next crisis... 29th November 2019 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia’s fiscal boost, Polish rates & Ukraine’s IMF deal Signs that Russia’s government is ramping up spending have raised hopes that economic growth will strengthen further in the coming quarters, but we don’t think that it will provide the large boost... 22nd November 2019 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey’s current account, Hungary’s strong GDP Turkey’s current account has been in surplus for three consecutive months now, but the government’s efforts to speed up the recovery will probably cause the external position to deteriorate again soon... 15th November 2019 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Q3 GDP figures, the fall of the wall The Q3 GDP figures due next week are likely to show that Russia’s economy struggled while Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) held up well. However, weakness in the euro-zone means we doubt that this... 8th November 2019 · 7 mins read
