Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Weak Turkish lira, Polish inflation, what to look for in 2020 The Turkish lira has been one of the worst performing currencies this month and this probably sets the scene for next year. This is a key reason why we think that the central bank will hike interest... 20th December 2019 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Ukraine’s IMF deal, Russian GDP & CEE inflation Ukraine is on the cusp of securing a new IMF deal but history suggests that the government will struggle to meet the Fund’s demands, which could put the recent rally in the bond market into reverse... 13th December 2019 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey’s domestic recovery & Hungary’s new super bond GDP and inflation figures released out of Turkey this week provided familiar signs that growth is increasingly unbalanced and we think that the central bank will ultimately be forced to reverse its... 6th December 2019 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkish policymaking worsens, CEE currencies slip Interventionist policymaking in Turkey has come back onto the radar this week. This is likely to lead to a misallocation of resources and adds to the reasons to think that the country’s next crisis... 29th November 2019 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia’s fiscal boost, Polish rates & Ukraine’s IMF deal Signs that Russia’s government is ramping up spending have raised hopes that economic growth will strengthen further in the coming quarters, but we don’t think that it will provide the large boost... 22nd November 2019 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey’s current account, Hungary’s strong GDP Turkey’s current account has been in surplus for three consecutive months now, but the government’s efforts to speed up the recovery will probably cause the external position to deteriorate again soon... 15th November 2019 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Q3 GDP figures, the fall of the wall The Q3 GDP figures due next week are likely to show that Russia’s economy struggled while Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) held up well. However, weakness in the euro-zone means we doubt that this... 8th November 2019 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Nord Stream 2, Turkish inflation, Romania’s budget The Danish government’s decision to approve the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline this week is widely seen as a victory for Russia, who could potentially halt energy supplies to Ukraine. But with the... 1st November 2019 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Doves in flight, Turkey-West relations fracturing The raft of interest rate cuts and dovish noises out of central banks this week support our view that monetary policy will remain loose or be loosened further across most of the region in the near... 25th October 2019 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Halkbank charges highlight Turkey’s banking sector risks The five-day ceasefire in Syria agreed by Turkey and the US yesterday has prompted a rally in Turkish markets and probably means that the central bank will press ahead with another large interest rate... 18th October 2019 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey sanctions threat rises, Romania’s government falls The threat of sanctions against Turkey is growing and, given the context of the country’s large external debts, the fallout for local financial markets could prove to be more severe than that the... 11th October 2019 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Poland’s CHF-mortgage loans & Turkey’s growth plan The ruling by the European Court of Justice that Polish households can potentially convert their Swiss franc-denominated mortgage loans into zloty could result in bank losses, but there probably... 4th October 2019 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Central banks downplay expectations for more dovish policy The more hawkish-than-expected communications from central banks across the region this week suggest that markets should not get carried away with expectations for more accommodative monetary policy... 27th September 2019 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey’s banks, Russia’s fiscal stimulus The decision by Turkey’s banking regulator to force banks to reclassify some of their loans as non-performing will raise concerns about the health of loan books, but we think that there are bigger... 20th September 2019 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Poland’s minimum wage plans, ECB stimulus The sharp increases in the minimum wage proposed by Poland’s ruling Law and Justice party have grabbed the headlines and raised concerns about the inflation outlook. But we doubt these measures will... 13th September 2019 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Ukraine optimism overdone, robust growth in CEE Ukraine’s President Volodymr Zelensky has hit the ground running in his bid to push key reforms through the Rada. Markets have taken these developments, as well as the strong Q2 GDP figures... 6th September 2019 · 7 mins read