Emerging Europe Economics Weekly NBP eyes weaker zloty, Erdogan tightens economic grip Comments from Poland’s central bank this week highlighting the risk that a stronger currency would hold back the economic recovery suggests that policymakers view the exchange rate as a tool that has... 19th June 2020 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Long-term scarring, auto production, CEE inflation Recent labour market developments offer early signs that employment protection schemes in place in Central Europe have contained the hit to the labour market. This should allow activity to recover... 12th June 2020 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia’s fiscal package, Ukrainians leaving Poland The three-step stimulus plan unveiled this week by Russia’s government comes late in the day. But it does suggest that policymakers are serious about the shift towards permanently looser fiscal policy... 5th June 2020 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Nagy resigns, EU recovery package, activity data The resignation of one of the Hungarian central bank’s key personnel this week may lead to a simplification of the monetary policy framework but is unlikely to alter the institution’s dovish bias... 29th May 2020 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey’s temporary reprieve, EU budget proposals Financial support for Turkey unveiled by Qatar and Japan this week reduce the immediate threat of another currency crisis. But the funds being provided pale into comparison with Turkey’s external... 22nd May 2020 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey’s external hit, Karlsruhe ruling, Russia’s lockdown Strains in Turkey’s balance of payments persist and recent developments have done little to alter our view that the risk of another currency crisis is rising. Meanwhile, a ruling last week by the... 15th May 2020 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Putin in peril, CEE Q1 GDP The failure of the Russian authorities to contain the coronavirus outbreak and the lack of urgency with which policymakers have stepped up fiscal support has made us increasingly concerned about a... 7th May 2020 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Storm brewing in Turkey, Czech easing restrictions The coronavirus is having a significant impact on Turkey’s balance of payments and, while the lira broke through 7/$ today, efforts to defend the currency are far from over. This risks a much larger... 1st May 2020 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Futile lira defence, CEE bond purchases Turkish policymakers’ efforts to prevent the lira from slipping through 7/$ will prove futile and, with the chances of an IMF deal slim, the government has turned to import compression to counter... 24th April 2020 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkish markets under pressure, but resilient elsewhere The Turkish lira has been the ugly duckling of EM currencies this month as fears grow over the country’s coronavirus outbreak and poor external position. Turkish banks’ short-term external debts are... 17th April 2020 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Coronavirus developments, Turkey and the IMF Governments in parts of the region have had some success in slowing the spread of the coronavirus, notably in Poland and the Czech Republic where some lockdown measures are now being eased. But there... 9th April 2020 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Orbán’s power grab, Russia’s worsening outlook The Hungarian parliament’s decision to allow Prime Minister Viktor Orbán to rule by decree indefinitely has caused uproar among EU officials. For now, the European Commission is likely to do little... 3rd April 2020 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly CEE bond purchases, Russia’s containment measures The policy response across Central and Eastern Europe has become more aggressive over the past few weeks and the region’s central banks have joined a growing list of those that have started purchasing... 27th March 2020 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Output set to collapse, policy support likely to build The downside risks to the global economy have now become reality and the effects of the coronavirus outbreak will cause output to fall sharply in Q2 and GDP across the region will contract this year... 20th March 2020 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Oil collapse, containment in CEE, new forecasts The outlook for Emerging Europe has taken a considerable turn for the worse in the past week and we have revised down our GDP growth forecasts across the region. Our 2020 forecasts are now 1-2%-pts... 13th March 2020 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Coronavirus policy response, Turkey’s tourism The Russian government’s reluctance to cut oil production to shore up prices suggests that low oil prices won’t derail the government’s long-awaited stimulus package this year, but the impact of the... 6th March 2020 · 5 mins read
