Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkish markets under pressure, but resilient elsewhere The Turkish lira has been the ugly duckling of EM currencies this month as fears grow over the country’s coronavirus outbreak and poor external position. Turkish banks’ short-term external debts are... 17th April 2020 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Coronavirus developments, Turkey and the IMF Governments in parts of the region have had some success in slowing the spread of the coronavirus, notably in Poland and the Czech Republic where some lockdown measures are now being eased. But there... 9th April 2020 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Orbán’s power grab, Russia’s worsening outlook The Hungarian parliament’s decision to allow Prime Minister Viktor Orbán to rule by decree indefinitely has caused uproar among EU officials. For now, the European Commission is likely to do little... 3rd April 2020 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly CEE bond purchases, Russia’s containment measures The policy response across Central and Eastern Europe has become more aggressive over the past few weeks and the region’s central banks have joined a growing list of those that have started purchasing... 27th March 2020 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Output set to collapse, policy support likely to build The downside risks to the global economy have now become reality and the effects of the coronavirus outbreak will cause output to fall sharply in Q2 and GDP across the region will contract this year... 20th March 2020 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Oil collapse, containment in CEE, new forecasts The outlook for Emerging Europe has taken a considerable turn for the worse in the past week and we have revised down our GDP growth forecasts across the region. Our 2020 forecasts are now 1-2%-pts... 13th March 2020 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Coronavirus policy response, Turkey’s tourism The Russian government’s reluctance to cut oil production to shore up prices suggests that low oil prices won’t derail the government’s long-awaited stimulus package this year, but the impact of the... 6th March 2020 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Syria tensions, coronavirus fears, Turkish credit growth Concerns about the coronavirus outbreak have hit global financial markets this week, but assets in Turkey and Russia have taken a further leg down due to tensions between the two arising from the... 28th February 2020 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkish government eyes Isbank, EU budget problems The Turkish government’s plans to transfer the opposition party’s stake in a major bank to the Treasury adds to the evidence that it is trying to gain more leverage over the banking sector. This is... 21st February 2020 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Central Europe inflation, Sberbank sale, Turkish lira Inflation rose above the upper level of central banks’ target ranges in Central Europe in January for the first time in over seven years but, while the Czech central bank hiked rates last week, it... 14th February 2020 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Romanian politics, Poland’s judiciary, coronavirus impact Romania’s three-month old government collapsed this week, increasing the chance of early elections this year which would bring forward much-needed fiscal consolidation. That would ease investors’... 7th February 2020 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly CBRT’s optimism, Central Europe to slow further In its latest Inflation Report, Turkey’s central bank stuck to its forecast for inflation to fall back in 2020-21, but this rests on the farfetched assumption that a negative output gap will persist... 31st January 2020 · 10 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkish inflation, Russia’s government, US tariff threat Comments from Turkey’s central bank governor this week suggest that further interest rate cuts lie in store. This is premised on the view that inflation will fall back, which is likely to prove... 24th January 2020 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Putin’s political storm, Central European rates Russia’s political drama has triggered a flurry of speculation about how President Putin plans to wield power beyond the end of his term in 2024. We see nothing in this to change our downbeat long... 17th January 2020 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey’s banking risks, boom time in Hungary Turkey’s financial markets have rebounded in recent days, partly because fears of a US-Iran war have eased but also because local banks have sounded more bullish on their own performance this year... 10th January 2020 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russian inflation, Polish MPC, IMF slates Turkey The drop in Russian inflation in December, combined with comments from the central bank governor, support our view that there will be at least one more interest rate cut in the current easing cycle... 3rd January 2020 · 7 mins read