Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Recovery struggling in Central Europe, growing risks ahead The disappointing batch of August activity data for Central and Eastern Europe suggest that the initial rebound caused by the release of pent-up demand is petering out. The recent escalation of... 9th October 2020 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Geopolitical tensions in Turkey, tighter restrictions in CEE The conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh has opened up another schism between Turkey, the EU and Russia and there is a major risk that an escalation of tensions could trigger sharp falls in the lira and push... 2nd October 2020 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Tightening in Hungary and Turkey, Poland’s ‘fur crisis’ Concerns about currency falls and the inflation outlook prompted central banks in Hungary and Turkey to raise interest rates this week but while we think this will ultimately be reversed in Hungary... 25th September 2020 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkish lira, Russia’s vaccine, virus cases in Hungary The pressure on the Turkish lira this week as the risk of EU sanctions continued to rise has prompted a further tightening of monetary conditions, but an outright hike to policy rates at next week’s... 18th September 2020 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia’s resilient GDP, virus cases grabbing headlines The breakdown of Russian Q2 GDP released this week showed that the economy's sectoral structure helped to cushion the fall in output from the pandemic. More recently, there have been encouraging signs... 11th September 2020 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russian ruble under pressure, Central Europe recovery The ratcheting up in geopolitical tensions in Russia this week amid concerns about the use of a chemical nerve agent is a warning sign for the ruble and further falls in the currency are likely to lie... 4th September 2020 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Fragile EU-Turkey relations, MNB in a bind The Turkish central bank's tightening of monetary conditions has helped to stabilise the lira but the further ratcheting up of tensions with the EU and threat of measures beyond sanctions mean that... 28th August 2020 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey’s gas discovery & budget deficit, crisis in Belarus Turkey's discovery of gas in the Black Sea will provide some boost to the country's balance of payments, but its might be quickly eroded if the authorities use this as an opportunity to loosen policy... 21st August 2020 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Lira intervention, Russia’s vaccine, CEE inflation Turkey's central bank has acted swiftly to tighten monetary conditions to shore up the lira and they would continue on this path if strains in the balance of payments were to flare up again. Meanwhile... 14th August 2020 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Lira sell-off adds pressure on the CBRT to respond The sharp fall in the Turkish lira this week appears to be pushing policymakers towards monetary tightening, but we're not convinced that they will placate financial markets. In the past, it has... 7th August 2020 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Czech GDP, Turkish inflation and lira, Russian ruble Czech Q2 GDP figures released on Friday support our view that Central Europe will recover more quickly from the coronavirus crisis than most other EM regions. Elsewhere, the Turkish central bank’s... 31st July 2020 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly EU funds & CEE, Turkey sanctions, Russian oil hedging This week’s agreement on the EU budget is generally a positive outcome for Central and Eastern Europe, with fund allocations rising and Poland and Hungary rejoicing at the lack of a framework linking... 24th July 2020 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia’s national projects, NBU governor, ERM II The postponement of President Putin’s flagship National Projects initiative seems to pave the way for the Prime Minister’s economic recovery plan to take centre stage over the coming years, but it... 17th July 2020 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Activity rebounds strongly in Central Europe The rebound in retail sales and industrial production across Central and Eastern Europe in May as lockdown measures were lifted supports our view that the region will experience a relatively strong... 10th July 2020 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Ukraine in the spotlight, Russia’s sanctions threat The resignation of Ukraine’s central bank governor, Yakiv Smolii, this week is unlikely to upend the country’s IMF deal, but failure to replace him with a credible candidate or backsliding on recent... 3rd July 2020 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia’s referendum, Poland’s election, Turkey & MSCI Russia’s government has been pulling out the stops to increase turnout in the vote on constitutional amendments to allow President Putin to rule until 2036, but details on the government’s medium-term... 26th June 2020 · 6 mins read
