Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Rare zloty weakness, Erdogan’s extended purge The Polish zloty touched its weakest level against the euro this week since 2009 but we don’t expect the currency to lose any more ground from here. Meanwhile, Turkey’s President Erdogan took further... 1st April 2021 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly CEE’s delayed recovery, cautious CNB, Turkey turmoil The rise in virus infections, extension of containment measures and slow pace of vaccination mean that we are revising down our GDP forecasts in Central Europe this year. Meanwhile, the fallout from... 26th March 2021 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia sanctions, vaccine worries, NBR turns hawkish Comments from US President Joe Biden this week threatening to take a tougher stance against Russia have raised the prospect of tighter US sanctions that could deal a significant blow to Russian... 19th March 2021 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey’s CA deficit, sticky inflation in Hungary Current account figures out of Turkey this week were a bit worse than expected but the underlying trend suggests that the economy is rebalancing. This, alongside a further interest rate hike by the... 12th March 2021 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly CBRT & NBU in tightening mode, NBP not even close The further rise in inflation in Turkey last month and the continued fall in the lira this week prompted a hawkish announcement from the CBRT and we now expect a 100bp rise in the one-week repo rate... 5th March 2021 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Market rout grips Turkey, third waves the talk in CEE The Turkish lira has been among the hardest hit EM currencies this week amid the global market sell off and, while concerns that the shift in policymaking is unravelling are probably overdone, there's... 26th February 2021 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russian ruble’s tug of war, semiconductor headaches The threat of Western sanctions on Russia is clouding the near-term outlook, but the recent sharp increase in oil prices suggests that fiscal policy may become a bit more supportive this year and that... 19th February 2021 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Slow vaccine rollout, Turkey’s S-400s, Czech tightening The incredibly slow start to vaccination programmes across the region threatens to delay the recovery we had expected from Q2 this year. Meanwhile, signs that Turkey is open to compromise on its... 12th February 2021 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Sputnik V gets a thumbs up, Turkey’s constitution plans Russia's vaccination programme has got off to a slow start, but the the publication of peer-reviewed trial results that confirm the high efficacy of the Sputnik V vaccine should help to improve... 5th February 2021 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly EU vaccine row, MNB asset purchases, CBRT impresses The risk of a large shortfall in COVID-19 vaccine deliveries to the EU threatens to delay the recovery that we had expected in Emerging Europe during the first half of this year. While the central... 29th January 2021 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia’s FDI slump, NS2 in danger, hawkish CBRT The slump in FDI inflows to a 26-year low in Russia last year underline how bleak the country's medium-term growth prospects are. With the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline looking in greater danger of being... 22nd January 2021 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Hungary’s vaccine drive, Turkey’s recovery teeters Vaccination programmes gathered pace across the region this week and the Hungarian government's decision to side-step the EU and procure vaccines independently could allow containment measures to be... 15th January 2021 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Vaccine rollout, Poland’s policy shift, US data breach COVID-19 vaccination programmes in the region have started slowly over the past few weeks and prolonged virus restrictions mean that economies will remain weak for a few more months at least... 8th January 2021 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia food prices, Czech tax cut, Turkey’s policy shift Measures taken by Russia’s government this week to try to curb the rise in food inflation are unlikely to have a major impact on monetary policy, but they do underline that higher social spending is... 18th December 2020 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey sanctions threat, EU compromise, CEE inflation The possibility of the US and EU imposing sanctions on Turkey has increased this week and a further escalation of tensions could undermine the gains from the recent shift to more orthodox economic... 11th December 2020 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly EU Budget, Russia vaccinations, Romania elections Leaders in Hungary and Poland appear unwilling to back down over their EU budget veto, but threats by EU officials to circumvent them entirely may make a compromise more likely. President Putin’s... 4th December 2020 · 5 mins read