Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Erdogan piles on the pressure, Israel’s surprise coalition Talk this week of rate cuts in Turkey has led to further falls in the lira and, ironically, means that the central bank will stand pat at this month's MPC meeting. In Israel, the coalition proposal... 4th June 2021 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Lira touches new low, CEE bond yield divergence It's been a rocky week for the Turkish lira amid more changes at the central bank and political upheaval regarding a possible link between politicians and organised crime. This, coming alongside high... 28th May 2021 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Hungary’s policy shift, Turkey’s tight fiscal stance Guidance from Hungary's central bank this week suggests that it is taking the fight against inflation much more seriously and we now think that a monetary tightening cycle will start over the coming... 21st May 2021 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Israel-Gaza conflict, CEE inflation spike The experience of the conflict between Israel and Hamas in 2014 suggests that the economic impact of the current conflict may be limited and temporary. So long as it ends soon, we still expect a... 14th May 2021 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Poland’s recovery plan, hawkish central banks in CEE Poland submitted its recovery and resilience plan to the European Commission over the past week and, while the plan to boost long-term growth looks ambitious, it should make a major contribution... 7th May 2021 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey heading into lockdown as CEE starts to re-open The imposition of a national lockdown in Turkey this week adds to the headwinds facing the recovery and means that the risks to our GDP growth forecast for this year are skewed to the downside. In... 30th April 2021 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Putin’s fiscal gift, lira fall, Polish inflation, Israel launch President Putin’s state of the nation address this week outlined more social welfare measures ahead of elections in September, but the implications for growth and inflation will be limited. Meanwhile... 23rd April 2021 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Virus outbreaks diverge, Russian sanctions, CBRT hold Third waves of COVID-19 in Central Europe seem to have peaked and authorities are moving to ease restrictions on activity, which should support recoveries. But Turkey’s outbreak has gone from bad to... 16th April 2021 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Conflict in the Donbass, Turkey’s FX reserve problem The flare up in military tensions between Russia and Ukraine this week poses a major threat to political stability in the region and could exacerbate some existing macro vulnerabilities in both... 9th April 2021 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Rare zloty weakness, Erdogan’s extended purge The Polish zloty touched its weakest level against the euro this week since 2009 but we don’t expect the currency to lose any more ground from here. Meanwhile, Turkey’s President Erdogan took further... 1st April 2021 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly CEE’s delayed recovery, cautious CNB, Turkey turmoil The rise in virus infections, extension of containment measures and slow pace of vaccination mean that we are revising down our GDP forecasts in Central Europe this year. Meanwhile, the fallout from... 26th March 2021 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia sanctions, vaccine worries, NBR turns hawkish Comments from US President Joe Biden this week threatening to take a tougher stance against Russia have raised the prospect of tighter US sanctions that could deal a significant blow to Russian... 19th March 2021 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey’s CA deficit, sticky inflation in Hungary Current account figures out of Turkey this week were a bit worse than expected but the underlying trend suggests that the economy is rebalancing. This, alongside a further interest rate hike by the... 12th March 2021 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly CBRT & NBU in tightening mode, NBP not even close The further rise in inflation in Turkey last month and the continued fall in the lira this week prompted a hawkish announcement from the CBRT and we now expect a 100bp rise in the one-week repo rate... 5th March 2021 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Market rout grips Turkey, third waves the talk in CEE The Turkish lira has been among the hardest hit EM currencies this week amid the global market sell off and, while concerns that the shift in policymaking is unravelling are probably overdone, there's... 26th February 2021 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russian ruble’s tug of war, semiconductor headaches The threat of Western sanctions on Russia is clouding the near-term outlook, but the recent sharp increase in oil prices suggests that fiscal policy may become a bit more supportive this year and that... 19th February 2021 · 6 mins read
