Emerging Europe Economics Update Markets brush off concerns over Greece Financial markets in Emerging Europe have brushed off renewed concerns over Greece – indeed, equity markets in most countries have rallied over the course of this month and currencies have generally... 23rd February 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What has been behind capital flight from Russia? It has been suggested in some quarters that huge capital outflows from Russia last year were largely due to external debt repayments and thus should not be seen as a major cause for concern. But while... 17th February 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update IMF package brings Ukraine back from the brink The scale of the package of financing for Ukraine announced this morning should be adequate to cover financing needs for a couple of years and will remove an element of uncertainty surrounding the... 12th February 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech Rep: Euro-zone clouds outlook, policy to be eased further Renewed weakness in Germany and the crisis in Russia will weigh on the Czech Republic’s key export sector in the coming quarters. However, the conditions are in place for domestic demand to strengthen... 10th February 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What to make of the latest currency moves in Central Europe After a year of stability, Central Europe’s currency markets sprung back to life over the past month as the ECB unveiled a QE programme and the Swiss National Bank (SNB) decided to scrap its exchange... 9th February 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey caught in currency crosswinds The fall in the Turkish lira against the US dollar over the past couple of weeks has raised fresh concerns about the country’s relatively high burden of dollar-denominated debt. But at the same time... 6th February 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Oil prices to determine interest rate moves in Russia The fact that the ruble has strengthened since Russia’s surprise cut in interest rates last Friday is more a reflection of the subsequent rebound in global oil prices than it is an endorsement by... 6th February 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish interest rate cut coming in March Having left its policy interest rate unchanged at 2.0% earlier today, the Polish MPC pretty much confirmed at the post-meeting press conference that a rate cut is on the way in March. For now, we... 4th February 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s surprise rate cut a response to political pressures Today’s surprise decision by the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) to cut its one-week repo rate by 200bp, to 15.0%, reflects political pressures rather than economic reality. The decision was premised on... 30th January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update How big a buffer do Russia’s FX reserves provide? We’re often asked about the extent to which Russia’s sizeable foreign exchange reserves provide a buffer against lower oil prices and capital flight and for how long they might last. There are lots of... 29th January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungarian MPC hints that case for rate cuts is building The communiqué accompanying the Hungarian MPC’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged at 2.1% earlier today once again signalled that current monetary conditions are likely to stay in place for... 27th January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Divergence in EM inflation to widen further in 2015 Inflation has diverged significantly across the emerging world over the past few months. While some economies have slipped into deflation, in a number of countries consumer prices are rising at a... 27th January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ruble crisis to force larger Russian bank recapitalisations The collapse in the ruble appears to have wiped out a large chunk of the Russian banking sector’s capital and we think the government will need to expand its current recapitalisation plans... 26th January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update ECB QE provides modest bump to markets The ECB’s larger-than-expected quantitative easing programme has led to a rally in Central European equities and currencies, although this hasn’t been substantial. Meanwhile, the yields on Ukrainian... 23rd January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian government starting to face up to fiscal realities Today’s meeting between President Putin and government ministers to discuss anti-crisis measures and budget amendments suggests that the authorities are finally starting to acknowledge the new... 21st January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish MPC cuts rates, but monetary conditions to stay tight Today’s 50bp cut in the Turkish one-week repo rate, to 7.75%, doesn’t necessarily mark an easing of monetary conditions. It’s much more important to look at interbank interest rates, and these have... 20th January 2015 · 1 min read
