Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s central bank not backtracking on ruble free float Recent concerns that Russia’s central bank is abandoning the ruble free float seem overdone. While policymakers will undoubtedly keep a close eye on the ruble and intervene on the FX market in order... 22nd July 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungarian MPC ends easing cycle, pledges loose policy Having cut its two-week deposit rate by a slightly larger-than-expected 15bp to 1.35% earlier today, the Hungarian MPC made it clear that no further rate cuts were likely. But at the same time, the... 21st July 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What’s behind the slump in Russian industry? The collapse in Russian industrial output in the second quarter appears to have been driven by the unwinding of one-off supports to a couple of sectors, as well further weakness in domestic demand... 14th July 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update “Grexit” and the channels of potential contagion to Emerging Europe The mechanisms through which the deepening crisis in Greece could spill over to banking sectors in Emerging Europe are complex and commonly misunderstood. However, as we explain in this Watch, they... 9th July 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: fiscal squeeze to weigh on growth for years to come There are signs that the slump in the Russian economy is now close to bottoming out. However, we think that when the recovery does come, it is likely to be extremely weak at best. One reason for this... 9th July 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish MPC plays down risks from Greece The statement accompanying today’s Polish MPC meeting, at which the policy interest rate was left unchanged, sounded relatively sanguine on the risks posed by the deepening crisis in Greece to the... 8th July 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What do July’s utility price hikes mean for Russian inflation? Utility tariffs for Russian households and businesses were raised at the start of this month, fuelling concerns in some quarters that this could trigger a renewed pick-up in inflation. But the key... 2nd July 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romanian MPC takes further rate cuts off the table The National Bank of Romania pinned its decision to keep interest rates on hold earlier today (rather thancut them further) on concerns about contagion from the Greek crisis. And judging by the... 1st July 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update A primer on the implications of “Grexit” for Emerging Europe With Greece’s bailout talks postponed (again), the country’s membership of the euro-zone is lookingprecarious. In this Update, we provide a primer on what “Grexit” might mean for Emerging Europe. 26th June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update EM inflation to pick up as oil price effect fades EM inflation is set to accelerate in the months ahead as downward pressure from thefall in oil prices late last year unwinds. This will ease concerns about deflation in anumber of EMs, including China... 26th June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech MPC tones down dovish comments Having kept its policy interest rate and exchange rate ceiling unchanged earlier today, the Czech MPC struck a less dovish note at this afternoon’s press conference. For now, we remain of the view... 25th June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary’s easing cycle nearing an end The press release accompanying today’s decision by the National Bank of Hungary to lower its policy interest rate by 15bp to 1.50% hinted that the easing cycle has a little further to run. We have... 23rd June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey keeps rates on hold, but hikes looking increasingly likely The Turkish central bank kept its key interest rates on hold today, but the accompanying statement suggested that the MPC remains too sanguine on the inflation outlook and the risks posed by the large... 23rd June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Why there is no free lunch for Russia’s government There appears to be a great deal of confusion about how Russia can use its oil funds to finance its budget deficit, with some arguing that by drawing them down in rubles the government can both... 16th June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian MPC hints at smaller rate cuts ahead The Russian central bank cut its one-week repo rate by 100bp, to 11.5%, at today’s MPC meeting, but struck a more cautious note on the near-term outlook for inflation. As a result, while we expect... 15th June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Revisiting the “Grexit” threat to Eastern Europe The clock is ticking for Greece to unlock much-needed funding and stay in the euro-zone. And if it fails and were to leave the single currency, the impact of this wouldn’t be felt in Greece alone. In... 11th June 2015 · 1 min read
