Emerging Europe Economics Update Law and Justice victory raises populism concerns in Poland Victory for Andrzej Duda of the Law and Justice Party in Sunday’s Polish presidential election has raised concerns about a shift towards more populist policymaking and taken some of the shine off... 26th May 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish MPC underplays inflation and current account concerns The press release accompanying today’s Turkish MPC meeting, at which interest rates were left unchanged, suggests that policymakers are increasingly concerned about the inflation outlook. But we still... 20th May 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ukraine’s debt restructuring: what to make of the latest moves The latest developments regarding Ukraine’s debt restructuring, including a law passed by parliament today which allows the government to renege on payments if needed, are themselves of little... 19th May 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey’s inflation problem likely to get worse We have been warning about the deep-rooted drivers of Turkish inflation for some time, and it now looks like energy prices will compound the problem by pushing the headline rate even further above the... 13th May 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Q1 GDP data to show Russia in recession, Central Europe resilient The raft of preliminary first quarter GDP data set to be released this week across Emerging Europe should confirm that the Russian economy fell into recession, but that growth in Central Europe was... 11th May 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech MPC turns a little less dovish The press release accompanying the Czech National Bank’s MPC meeting, at which the policy rate and the exchange rate ceiling were left unchanged, was dovish but less so than in March. As a result... 7th May 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish MPC plays down talk of tightening Having left interest rates unchanged earlier today, the Polish MPC struck a dovish note at this afternoon’s press conference in an effort to temper the market’s expectations for interest rate hikes... 6th May 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Steady core inflation indication of a structural EM slowdown Most of the recent slowdown in inflation across the emerging world has been the result of the weakness in food and fuel inflation. Meanwhile, core inflation is barely any lower than a couple of years... 29th April 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update The EC’s case against Gazprom – the key points The European Commission today charged Gazprom with abusing its dominant position in Eastern Europe’s gas market. In this Update, we answer five key questions about the decision and the implications... 22nd April 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish central bank tinkers around the edges to defend lira The Turkish central bank left its official interest rates unchanged today, but managed to make its monetary policy framework even more complex by tweaking a few obscure tools in an effort to release... 22nd April 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungarian MPC signals further easing to come The communiqué accompanying today’s decision by the Hungarian National Bank to cut its two-week deposit rate by 15bp, to 1.80%, was very similar to last month’s and clearly indicated that another... 21st April 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Strong Turkish inflation is deep-rooted There is a growing debate in Turkey about what lies behind the strength of inflation, but we think this discussion has overlooked the absence of spare capacity. Without structural reforms to address... 17th April 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Making sense of the ruble rally The most convincing explanation for the recent rally in the ruble is the fact that the strains in Russia’s balance of payments have eased since the start of the year. Nonetheless, they haven’t gone... 15th April 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish MPC shrugs off concerns about deflation and strong zloty Having left the policy interest rate unchanged at 1.5% earlier today, the Polish National Bank’s governor, Marek Belka , dismissed suggestions that the strengthening zloty and March’s weaker-than... 15th April 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary’s Sunday trading ban symbolic of reform backsliding The decision taken by the Hungarian government to ban Sunday trading is unlikely to have a major impact on the economy at an aggregate level. But as we explain in this Watch, it may lead to a shift in... 9th April 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s 2015 budget: a fiscal squeeze is looming The assumptions underpinning Russia’s 2015 budget, currently working its way through parliament, look realistic, suggesting that the government is finally starting to wake up to the extent of the... 8th April 2015 · 1 min read
