Emerging Europe Economics Update Iran’s strike: what next for Israel? The Iranian strike over the weekend has been largely shrugged off by Israel’s financial markets and on its own is unlikely to have a major impact on the economy. The key uncertainty now is how Israel... 15th April 2024 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE inflation to rebound before long While inflation fell further across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) in March, we think that the recent run of good CPI news is largely over. We expect inflation to rise back above central banks’... 11th April 2024 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey election: AKP defeat = good news for investors The strong showing for the opposition in Turkey’s local elections on Sunday highlights the extent of voter frustration with high inflation and we think that it should be interpreted as a positive for... 2nd April 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Putin 5.0: what to look out for now Vladimir Putin secured a record victory in Russia’s presidential election over the weekend. The focus now will be on whether this emboldens Putin to devote more resources to the war effort, whether... 18th March 2024 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Three key stories from Turkey's balance of payments Turkey’s balance of payments figures for January showed that the current account deficit continued to narrow, but the drop in capital inflows in recent months is a concern and it appears that this... 12th March 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romania needs to reduce its macro imbalances Romania’s large twin budget and current account deficits remain a key concern. One near-term risk is that fiscal policy stays very loose (or is loosened further), particularly in view of elections... 28th February 2024 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czechia to remain one of the sick men of Europe The Czech economy has had the weakest performance of any EU country since the pandemic, and we think that growth will disappoint expectations again in 2024. This will keep inflation contained and put... 16th February 2024 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary-EU tensions ratchet up with EU funds at stake Were the EU to block Hungary’s access to funds (if it vetoes financing for Ukraine at this week’s summit), as reports on Sunday suggested, this would probably have a smaller direct impact on Hungary’s... 29th January 2024 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Five key themes from Euromoney's CEE forum The fading energy crisis and the falls in inflation and interest rates generated a more positive mood about the economic outlook at Euromoney’s Central and Eastern European (CEE) forum in Vienna this... 18th January 2024 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update NBP has limited scope for rate cuts in 2024 Communications from the governor of the National Bank of Poland (NBP) today suggest to us that policymakers could cut interest rates again at the central bank’s March meeting. But we think core... 10th January 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update A closer look at the rebound in Turkey’s FX reserves Turkey’s gross international reserves have hit a record high recently which, on the face of it, suggests that the policy U-turn since May has helped to diminish the country’s balance of payments... 14th December 2023 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update Key risks for 2024 In this Global Economics Update, we describe eight of the biggest risks to our economic forecasts for 2024. The unusual nature of this cycle and uncertainties surrounding the transmission of monetary... 30th November 2023 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update 5 key questions on the war and Israel’s public finances The Israeli government’s budget deficit is widening sharply and we think it will breach 5% of GDP next year. Provided the length of the war and the increase in the deficit are short-lived, we don’t... 22nd November 2023 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: outlook remains fragile despite oil price boost The squeeze on Russia’s budget and current account positions has eased over the second half of this year, largely thanks to a rise in oil prices. Higher energy revenues next year should help to limit... 15th November 2023 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE sovereign debt dynamics becoming more fragile Governments across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) need to deliver significant fiscal tightening over the coming years to prevent public debt ratios from grinding higher. The risk of an imminent... 9th November 2023 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update War and Israel’s economy: lessons from history One question we have received frequently from clients is what lessons Israel’s previous wars offer when thinking about the effects on its economy from the conflict today. While no two events are the... 1st November 2023 · 4 mins read
