Emerging Europe Economics Update Central Europe driven by domestic demand The full breakdown of Q1 GDP data for the economies of Central Europe confirmed that domestic demand remains the main driver of growth, although there was a surprisingly large boost from net trade in... 31st May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian survey data point to small pick-up in growth A recent improvement in the survey data from Russia suggests that, following an extremely disappointing Q1, the economy should undergo a modest recovery over the next few quarters. 30th May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: fiscal policy to support modest pick-up in growth Fiscal policy exerted a big drag on the Russian economy last year and in Q1 of this year, but there are signs that the fiscal stance is now becoming less restrictive. This should support a modest... 22nd May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update A closer look at Turkey’s FX reserves The Turkish central bank (CBRT) seems to have become more inclined to use its foreign exchange reserves to support the lira, despite growing scrutiny about the level of reserves. Growing question... 13th May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What’s behind the strength of Hungarian inflation? The recent pick-up in Hungarian core inflation is partly a result of tax changes but also reflects rapid wage growth, and this is likely to cause underlying price pressures to continue to build. We... 9th May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: Istanbul election re-run poses stimulus risks The decision to cancel and re-run the Istanbul mayoral election is likely to prompt the Turkish government to continue loosening fiscal policy in the coming weeks. Past experience suggests that the... 7th May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech tightening cycle comes to an end The interest rate hike at today’s monetary policy meeting probably marks the end of the Czech National Bank’s tightening cycle. While we think that the currency will fail to appreciate by as much as... 2nd May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian wage growth to recover Following several quarters of weakness, Russian wage growth will probably pick up a little over the coming months as public sector salaries are raised and labour market conditions continue to tighten... 1st May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update More monetary tightening lies in store in Romania The National Bank of Romania’s decision to maintain strict control over money market liquidity marks a step in the right direction to addressing the large build-up of economic imbalances. But we think... 1st May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian central bank signals rate cut is imminent The dovish nature of the Russian central bank’s post-meeting statement has prompted us to bring forward the interest rate cut that we had pencilled in for Q3 to June. Further ahead, we forecast that... 26th April 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish MPC brings policy easing on to the agenda The Turkish central bank’s decision to leave interest rates on hold at today’s meeting was widely expected, although changes to the accompanying statement suggest that the MPC is starting to consider... 25th April 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian ruble rally likely to fade The Russian ruble has been the best-performing EM currency so far this year, in spite of the threat of tighter US sanctions which caused a premium to open up in February. We think that the ruble rally... 24th April 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What would a no-deal Brexit mean for Emerging Europe? In the event of a no-deal Brexit, we think that weaker UK import demand would probably result in Central European GDP growth in 2019-20 being 0.3-0.5%-pts weaker than in a managed Brexit scenario... 3rd April 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What should we make of Rosstat’s latest revisions? The strength of Russian GDP growth in Q4 (and the upwards revisions to the historical data) has caused controversy. But overall, we think the new GDP figures probably bear a closer resemblance to... 1st April 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech National Bank flags euro-zone concerns The Czech National Bank made clear that it is more concerned about the impact of weakness in the euro-zone than strong domestic inflationary pressures. We still think that above-target inflation may... 28th March 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey’s banks the weakest link during market stress The turmoil in Turkey’s financial markets has raised external borrowing costs, making it more difficult to roll over the country’s large external debt burden. The risks are largest in the banking... 28th March 2019 · 1 min read
