Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish lira’s resilience built on shaky foundations The Turkish lira has held up remarkably well in the face of the escalation of the US-China trade war and the recent rise in global investor risk aversion. But with the threat of US sanctions lingering... 6th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech Republic: gradual shift to easing next year The communications following today’s meeting suggest that Czech policymakers are trying to temper the market’s view that interest rates will be cut in the coming months. Nonetheless, the Bank’s... 1st August 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s central bank to cut further than most expect The relatively dovish statement accompanying the Russian central bank’s decision to cut the policy rate today supports our view that the easing cycle has a lot further to go. We expect an additional... 26th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary: surveys point to a fresh pick-up in core inflation A raft of survey data suggests that last month’s fall in Hungarian core inflation is unlikely to mark the start of a downward trend – as the central bank anticipates. We expect that underlying price... 26th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Erdogan gets his way with aggressive rate cut The Turkish central bank’s new governor, Murat Uysal, delivered a sharp 425bp interest rate cut at today’s MPC meeting and pressure from President Erdogan means that further aggressive easing lies in... 25th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Industry unlikely to defy survey pessimism for long Manufacturing surveys across Central Europe have overstated the weakness of industry recently, but the strength of production growth looks unsustainable. As prolonged weakness in the euro-zone takes... 24th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish banks vulnerable to fresh market turbulence An initial round of US sanctions on Turkey, if approved by President Trump, would probably generate some financial market turbulence and this could ultimately cause major strains on banks’ balance... 16th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish investment boom has further to run A further sharp rise in EU structural fund inflows will support strong Polish fixed investment growth over the next couple of years. But that won’t be enough to prevent overall GDP growth from slowing... 16th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romania: current account risks mount Strong domestic demand means that Romania’s current account deficit, which is already among the largest of any major EM, is likely to widen further. This makes the leu increasingly vulnerable to a... 15th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech underperformance unlikely to continue The Czech economy has underperformed its regional peers in recent years due to its larger exposure to the euro-zone and weaker household spending. However, the Czech slowdown is close to bottoming out... 10th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update The implications of the CBRT reshuffle The dismissal of Turkey’s central bank governor over the weekend increases the chances of aggressive cuts in interest rates in the near-term. But it has also raised the risk of larger currency falls... 8th July 2019 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland’s MPC continues to strike a dovish note The relatively dovish stance adopted by Poland’s MPC in the communications accompanying today’s interest rate meeting supports our view that monetary policy settings will be left unchanged until the... 3rd July 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hawkish shift on Polish MPC won’t result in rate hike A rise in inflation has led five of the ten Polish MPC members to suggest that interest rates may soon need to be raised. But we doubt that any of the five more dovish members, including Governor... 2nd July 2019 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey and the threat of US sanctions The direct economic impact of an initial round of US sanctions on Turkey related to the purchase of Russian defence equipment would probably be limited, but past experience suggests that the threat of... 27th June 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Next Czech rate move likely to be down The Czech National Bank’s post-meeting communications offered the strongest hint yet that the monetary tightening cycle is over. With underlying inflationary pressures likely to ease and the global... 26th June 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary’s tightening cycle not over yet We still think that further monetary tightening lies in store in Hungary over the next eighteen months. But dovish communications accompanying today’s monetary policy meeting, and the reluctance to... 25th June 2019 · 3 mins read
