Emerging Europe Economics Update Support for Turkish lira cannot be sustained The Turkish authorities have kept a tight grip on the lira in recent weeks but we don’t think that this can continue for much longer and expect the currency to fall by 20% against the dollar by end... 10th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s central bank keeps door open to more easing The Russian central bank governor’s post-meeting press conference reinforced the message that, following today’s 25bp interest rate cut to 6.00%, further easing lies in store. We maintain our view... 7th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Surprise Czech rate hike to be a one-off The statement and press conference following today’s MPC meeting confirmed that the surprise decision to hike interest rates by 25bp, to 2.25%, will be a one-off. Policymakers will probably maintain a... 6th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Investment booms in CEE likely to come to an end The investment booms that provided a key support to Central and Eastern Europe probably peaked last year. This is one reason why we think that regional GDP growth will slow in 2020-21. 5th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CBRT bows to Erdogan but will have to backpedal The Turkish central bank (CBRT) cut interest rates by another 75bp today as policymakers bowed to pressure from President Erdogan for looser policy. More rate cuts are likely in the next few months... 16th January 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary’s boom has further to run in 2020 Hungary’s economy is likely to lose some steam this year, but loose policy will ensure that growth remains above potential. This will keep inflation high and economic imbalances will continue to build... 15th January 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Central Europe: central banks to shrug off high inflation The recent rise in inflation to multi-year highs across most of Central Europe has only a little further to run, but it will stay above central banks’ targets across the region this year. Policymakers... 9th January 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: nearing the end of the easing cycle The Russian central bank governor’s post-meeting press conference was characteristically cautious, supporting our view that following today’s 25bp interest rate cut, there will probably be just one... 13th December 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish central bank not taking its foot off the pedal The 200bp interest rate cut (to 12.0%) by the Turkish central bank as well as other recent tweaks to boost lending suggest that policymakers will try to meet President Erdogan’s demand to bring rates... 12th December 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Will the wheels come off Central European car output? The recent strength of motor vehicle production across Central Europe will be increasingly difficult to sustain as weakness in the German economy persists. The Czech Republic’s vehicle sector is... 12th December 2019 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update A closer look at Russia’s National Welfare Fund There is a growing expectation that Russia’s government will adjust the way the National Welfare Fund invests next year. In this Update, we take a closer look at what this means and explain why... 11th December 2019 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: recovery built on rocky foundations Q3 GDP figures due next week are likely to show that Turkey’s economic recovery has continued and we think that year-on-year growth could reach as high as 5-6% in Q4 and early 2020. But policy... 29th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: credit recovery has some legs, but brings risks The recent pick-up in bank lending in Turkey probably has further to run over the coming months, which will provide some support to the economic recovery. But the pace and composition of new lending... 12th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Strong Q3 GDP figures likely to be the last hurrah GDP figures this week are likely to show that Central and Eastern Europe recorded another strong quarter of growth in Q3, despite ongoing weakness in the euro-zone. But more timely data suggest that... 11th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Focus of Czech MPC to switch from hikes to cuts The statement following today’s MPC meeting confirmed that the Czech central bank is still concerned about above-target inflation and the need to hike interest rates. But with the economy likely to... 7th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update High inflation will prevent Polish MPC from cutting The National Bank of Poland (NBP) left interest rates on hold at 1.50% today and with external headwinds mounting and the economy likely to slow sharply over the coming quarters, calls for interest... 6th November 2019 · 2 mins read
