Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: nearing the end of the easing cycle The Russian central bank governor’s post-meeting press conference was characteristically cautious, supporting our view that following today’s 25bp interest rate cut, there will probably be just one... 13th December 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish central bank not taking its foot off the pedal The 200bp interest rate cut (to 12.0%) by the Turkish central bank as well as other recent tweaks to boost lending suggest that policymakers will try to meet President Erdogan’s demand to bring rates... 12th December 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Will the wheels come off Central European car output? The recent strength of motor vehicle production across Central Europe will be increasingly difficult to sustain as weakness in the German economy persists. The Czech Republic’s vehicle sector is... 12th December 2019 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update A closer look at Russia’s National Welfare Fund There is a growing expectation that Russia’s government will adjust the way the National Welfare Fund invests next year. In this Update, we take a closer look at what this means and explain why... 11th December 2019 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: recovery built on rocky foundations Q3 GDP figures due next week are likely to show that Turkey’s economic recovery has continued and we think that year-on-year growth could reach as high as 5-6% in Q4 and early 2020. But policy... 29th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: credit recovery has some legs, but brings risks The recent pick-up in bank lending in Turkey probably has further to run over the coming months, which will provide some support to the economic recovery. But the pace and composition of new lending... 12th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Strong Q3 GDP figures likely to be the last hurrah GDP figures this week are likely to show that Central and Eastern Europe recorded another strong quarter of growth in Q3, despite ongoing weakness in the euro-zone. But more timely data suggest that... 11th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Focus of Czech MPC to switch from hikes to cuts The statement following today’s MPC meeting confirmed that the Czech central bank is still concerned about above-target inflation and the need to hike interest rates. But with the economy likely to... 7th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update High inflation will prevent Polish MPC from cutting The National Bank of Poland (NBP) left interest rates on hold at 1.50% today and with external headwinds mounting and the economy likely to slow sharply over the coming quarters, calls for interest... 6th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Investment the weak spot in Turkey’s recovery Turkey’s economy has made a strong recovery from its recession last year, but investment has continued to fall and is unlikely to make a quick turnaround over the next couple of years. 31st October 2019 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s easing cycle shifts up a gear The Russian central bank’s decision to opt for a 50bp rate cut today (to 6.50%) and the dovish tone of the accompanying statement support our view that the easing cycle has further to run. As things... 25th October 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CBRT: further easing, but rates to go up by mid-2020 September’s plunge in inflation alongside the removal of US sanctions gave the Turkish central bank the green light to deliver another larger-than-expected interest rate cut today and the easing cycle... 24th October 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian retail sales set for a tepid recovery The weakness in Russian retail sales looks close to bottoming out, but any turnaround will be modest. This is one reason to think that the overall recovery in GDP growth will be weak and that the... 23rd October 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey and sanctions: the calm before the storm? Turkey’s financial markets have taken the US sanctions imposed yesterday in their stride, but the threat of harsher measures in the context of the country’s weak external position could result in a... 15th October 2019 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Revisiting the vulnerabilities in Turkey’s banking sector The growing threat of sanctions on Turkey in relation to its recent incursion into Syria have already put significant downward pressure on Turkish financial assets and fragilities in the banking... 14th October 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey and the latest sanctions threat The prospect of Turkish military action in Syria has again raised the spectre of US sanctions. While these would probably be on the soft end of the spectrum, Turkey’s poor external position means that... 8th October 2019 · 3 mins read
