Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary announces new liquidity-providing tools Hungary’s central bank announced a range of measures to increase liquidity in the banking system at today’s MPC meeting. But the economic effects of the coronavirus are likely to be much more damaging... 24th March 2020 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s economy heading for recession The slump in domestic and external demand as a result of the coronavirus outbreak means that we now expect the Russian economy to contract sharply this year. Despite its recent reluctance we expect... 24th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Slashing our forecasts across the region Countries across Emerging Europe have stepped up their efforts to contain the coronavirus outbreak over the past week or so and the economic damage will now be much more severe than we had previously... 23rd March 2020 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s central bank likely to lower rates soon The Russian central bank’s decision to keep the policy rate unchanged at 6.00% today made it one of the few major central banks that has yet to cut rates to support the economy in response to the... 20th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Revisiting Turkey’s external vulnerabilities The Turkish lira has held up relatively well amid the coronavirus-related sell-off in EM currencies, but the country’s large external debts leave it vulnerable if external financing conditions... 19th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Policy response will be stepped up across the region The coronavirus outbreak has prompted interest rate cuts and fiscal support packages in several countries across Emerging Europe and we think that more easing lies in store. That said, Turkey’s easing... 18th March 2020 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Central Europe heading for a sharp contraction in Q2 The restrictive measures implemented by the authorities across Central and Eastern Europe to stem the spread of the coronavirus, as well as the spillover effects from the downturn elsewhere, will... 18th March 2020 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Boost from low oil prices to be limited by coronavirus The collapse in oil prices will reduce current high rates of inflation in Central Europe and provide some respite for those oil importers with more fragile external positions (Turkey, Romania and... 12th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Assessing the impact of a weaker ruble for Russia The recent fall in the ruble will help to cushion the hit to the Russian government’s revenues resulting from the plunge in oil prices, but it will come at a cost to corporates that have large... 10th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia and the collapse in oil prices The tailspin in global oil prices will push Russia’s current account and budget balances into deficit but shouldn’t create severe strains in the economy. It would probably take a steeper fall in... 9th March 2020 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Policy response from Polish MPC likely to be small With the coronavirus outbreak spreading across Europe and its disruption to economic activity likely to mount, we think that the Polish central bank will ease policy this year. But the tone of the MPC... 4th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Coronavirus to hit activity across Emerging Europe The spread of coronavirus outside China and its possible economic effects has prompted us to revise down our GDP growth forecasts across the region by 0.2-0.5%-pts. The scope for monetary easing is... 4th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary’s MPC hints at possible rate hike in March The slightly more hawkish tone of the Hungarian central bank’s post-meeting statement supports our view that the central bank will deliver a 10bp hike in the overnight deposit rate next month. However... 25th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary: shift towards tightening will be limited Hungary’s central bank will probably use Tuesday’s meeting to flag a shift towards tightening and we expect a small hike in the overnight deposit rate in March. But this is likely to be a symbolic... 24th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: easing cycle near an end, hikes later this year The Turkish central bank (CBRT) shrugged off rising inflation and lowered interest rates by another 50bp today, but the accompanying statement was a little more cautious and we think that the easing... 19th February 2020 · 3 mins read
