Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary’s MPC targets the yield curve Hungary’s central bank didn’t disappoint at today’s MPC meeting in announcing its bond purchase programme and it’s clear that policymakers have shifted their attention from keeping short-term rates... 28th April 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update How much will labour markets suffer? The coronavirus crisis is likely to cause unemployment rates to jump by 5%-points or so across most of the region in Q2 and we think the labour market fallout could be much worse in Turkey. However... 28th April 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s central bank cuts rates, more to follow The Russian central bank abandoned its cautious approach to the coronavirus outbreak by cutting its key policy rate by 50bp, to 5.50%, today and the accompanying communications gave the clearest... 24th April 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Counting the costs of the oil price slump for Russia The plunge in oil prices won’t push Russia’s economy into a financial crisis, as it did in 2008/09 and 2015. But the government is likely to run its largest budget deficit since the late 1990s, which... 22nd April 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: rates cut again, but lira limits scope for more The Turkish central bank responded to signs of a clear downturn in the economy by cutting interest rates by a further 100bp today but, with downward pressure on the lira continuing to mount, we think... 22nd April 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Will Turkey turn to the IMF? The damage to Turkey’s economy from the coronavirus outbreak has led to suggestions that the government may turn to the IMF for a financing package, but the political backdrop means that this would... 15th April 2020 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Economies in a stronger position to weather a new crisis Economies across Emerging Europe are heading for a sharp contraction in output, but one crumb of comfort is that vulnerabilities are drastically lower than they were in the run-up to the Global... 9th April 2020 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: banks more vulnerable than in currency crisis Turkey’s banks muddled through the currency crisis two years ago, but they are now in a weaker position to confront the economic and financial market fallout from the coronavirus outbreak. At the very... 2nd April 2020 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech MPC to step up its policy support The Czech central bank followed up last week’s emergency interest rate cut with further easing today and opened the door to use other measures to support the economy and stabilise the financial system... 26th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary announces new liquidity-providing tools Hungary’s central bank announced a range of measures to increase liquidity in the banking system at today’s MPC meeting. But the economic effects of the coronavirus are likely to be much more damaging... 24th March 2020 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s economy heading for recession The slump in domestic and external demand as a result of the coronavirus outbreak means that we now expect the Russian economy to contract sharply this year. Despite its recent reluctance we expect... 24th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Slashing our forecasts across the region Countries across Emerging Europe have stepped up their efforts to contain the coronavirus outbreak over the past week or so and the economic damage will now be much more severe than we had previously... 23rd March 2020 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s central bank likely to lower rates soon The Russian central bank’s decision to keep the policy rate unchanged at 6.00% today made it one of the few major central banks that has yet to cut rates to support the economy in response to the... 20th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Revisiting Turkey’s external vulnerabilities The Turkish lira has held up relatively well amid the coronavirus-related sell-off in EM currencies, but the country’s large external debts leave it vulnerable if external financing conditions... 19th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Policy response will be stepped up across the region The coronavirus outbreak has prompted interest rate cuts and fiscal support packages in several countries across Emerging Europe and we think that more easing lies in store. That said, Turkey’s easing... 18th March 2020 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Central Europe heading for a sharp contraction in Q2 The restrictive measures implemented by the authorities across Central and Eastern Europe to stem the spread of the coronavirus, as well as the spillover effects from the downturn elsewhere, will... 18th March 2020 · 4 mins read
