Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s easing cycle will resume before long The decision by Russia’s central bank to leave its policy rate at 4.25% today suggests that inflationary concerns are preventing further easing for now. But the communications reinforce our view that... 23rd October 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CBRT’s ‘corridor’ tweaks disappoint Turkey’s central bank (CBRT) left its benchmark one-week repo rate unchanged at 10.25% today but adjusted its other policy rates to give it more scope to tighten monetary conditions via the ‘corridor’... 22nd October 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Faltering reform drive clouds Ukraine outlook The coronavirus crisis has already dealt a heavy blow to the Ukrainian economy and the risks to the outlook are growing: recent challenges to the independence of the central bank and anti-corruption... 14th October 2020 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Second waves will stall the near-term recovery The speed and scale of the rise in coronavirus infections across Emerging Europe has prompted a response from the authorities, but policymakers are likely to turn to much broader and tighter... 12th October 2020 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey and the effects of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict The conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan in the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh has created yet another schism in Turkey’s relations with the US, the EU and Russia. It may only take a misstep... 8th October 2020 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Taking stock of Russia’s coronavirus outbreak The surge in coronavirus cases in Russia looks set to trigger tighter restrictions in the coming months. But we doubt that policymakers will re-introduce a full lockdown. After all, it would be... 6th October 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland’s current account surplus is here to stay A collapse in foreign firms’ reinvested earnings and a stronger recovery in goods exports than imports have caused Poland’s current account surplus to swell to record levels during the pandemic. While... 2nd October 2020 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CBRT clawing back credibility The Turkish central bank’s (CBRT’s) decision to hike its policy rates by 200bp today is a response to the recent lira weakness, and should help to restore the Bank’s battered credibility. The move... 24th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Lira to fall further as policy response fails to appease The Turkish lira has continued to weaken in recent weeks and, with the response by policymakers likely to fail to placate investors, we now expect the currency to fall to as low as 9.25/$ by the end... 23rd September 2020 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Forint weakness to prevent further rate cuts in Hungary The decision by Hungary’s central bank to leave its base rate on hold at 0.60% today highlights that the central bank is in a bind due to high inflation and concerns about the forint. Further interest... 22nd September 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Rates on hold in Russia, but easing cycle is not over The decision by Russia’s central bank to leave its policy rate on hold at 4.25% today is likely to mark a pause rather than an end to its easing cycle. The central bank will maintain its cautious... 18th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Strong Czech recovery despite rise in cases The Czech Republic has seen a renewed surge in virus cases in recent weeks and now has one of the worst outbreaks in Europe. While this poses a growing downside risk to the outlook, it has not changed... 14th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Digging into Russia’s consumer recovery The rebound in Russian consumer spending since April has been supported by a more active fiscal policy stance than we had expected. Although the pace of growth will soften, spending is likely to... 10th September 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Slump in the Russian ruble has further to run The Russian ruble looks set to lose further ground over the coming months as geopolitical tensions and the threat of international sanctions ratchet up. We expect the ruble to drift towards 80/$ by... 8th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Rising virus cases not a major threat to the recovery New daily coronavirus cases have hit record highs across Central and Eastern Europe over the past month and authorities have responded by tightening restrictions at a local level. Health systems in... 2nd September 2020 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: tourism and tighter policy to hinder recovery The 11% q/q drop in GDP in Turkey in Q2 was smaller than we had expected and we now forecast the economy to slump by 3% this year (previously 5.8%). But the recovery over the coming quarters will be... 1st September 2020 · 2 mins read
