Emerging Europe Economics Update Further falls lie in store for Turkish lira Today’s depreciation of the Turkish lira marks the first significant departure from the de facto peg that has been in place over the past month and, if tensions with the EU continue to escalate... 28th July 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia opts for small rate cut, cautious easing ahead Russia’s central bank cut its policy rate by 25bp, to 4.25%, today and continued to provide signals that further easing lies in store. But the communications suggest that the pace of easing will slow... 24th July 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: rates on hold as inflation concerns grow Turkey’s central bank kept interest rates on hold today and it’s clear from the accompanying statement that inflation concerns are preventing further easing. We think that rates will now be left on... 23rd July 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update A deep dive into Turkey’s latest credit boom Turkey’s credit boom that started towards the end of last year has been turbocharged in recent months and this should provide some welcome support to the economy as it emerges from the coronavirus... 9th July 2020 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Assessing the fallout from the tourist slump Borders are slowly re-opening across Emerging Europe, but international tourists are unlikely to return to the region in significant numbers for the key summer season. Romania and Russia are the least... 7th July 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What will Poland’s central bank do next? Poland’s central bank appears to have become concerned about the strength of the zloty recently and the negative impact this could have on the pace of the economic recovery, suggesting that it is... 2nd July 2020 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey’s central bank closes the door on easing cycle Turkey’s central bank unexpectedly left interest rates on hold today and it’s difficult to see how economic conditions will change in such a way over the coming months to justify renewed easing. We... 25th June 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary’s central bank brings forward easing Hungary’s central bank (MNB) unexpectedly cut its base rate from 0.90% to 0.75% at today’s monetary policy meeting, and we now think another cut is likely in the second half of this year. With the... 23rd June 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia cuts rates to a record low, more easing to come Russia’s central bank (CBR) didn’t disappoint at today’s meeting, cutting the key policy rate by 100bp to a new post-Soviet low of 4.50%. With disinflationary forces proving stronger than expected and... 19th June 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Four charts on the downturn and economic recovery The effects of lockdowns have been felt unevenly across the region, with Romania and Turkey suffering among the largest falls in both retail sales and industrial production, while activity in Latvia... 16th June 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland: a regional bright spot The early signs are that activity is recovering quickly in Poland as lockdown measures are lifted. Provided that the virus is contained, we think that Poland will experience the smallest contraction... 9th June 2020 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey’s fiscal position no longer a source of comfort Turkey’s public finances remain in good shape compared with most other EMs but they have deteriorated in recent years and are no longer the pillar of strength that they once were. The debt-to-GDP... 5th June 2020 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: rates cut, door opens for more easing Turkey’s central bank stepped up its monetary support for the economy with a 50bp cut in interest rates today and recent announcements of financial support from Qatar and Japan probably tips the... 21st May 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update How vulnerable are Russia’s banks? A deep dive into Russia’s banking system provides comfort that, while there are pockets of vulnerability beneath the surface, the economy is unlikely to experience a financial crisis like it did in... 20th May 2020 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech MPC strikes a conservative tone The Czech central bank delivered a larger-than-expected interest rate cut at today’s MPC meeting but also disappointed those that had expected some unconventional measures to be announced to support... 7th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Policy responses: the good, the bad and the ugly A worrying divergence is emerging in the policy response across the region. Policymakers in Central Europe imposed lockdown measures early which have succeeded in containing the outbreak. And the... 5th May 2020 · 4 mins read
