Emerging Europe Economics Update CBR closing the door on its easing cycle The central bank of Russia (CBR) left its key policy rate unchanged at 4.25% as expected today but the accompanying communications delivered a clear hawkish shift. With headline inflation likely to... 18th December 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Four key developments to focus on in 2021 2020 has been a year full of surprises and in this Update we outline key areas to watch next year. Early vaccine distribution will pave the way for a rapid economic recovery, but disinflation forces... 15th December 2020 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romania’s election to pave way for fiscal conservatism Parliamentary elections in Romania that took place on Sunday look set to result in the incumbent centre-right PNL party forming a new coalition government. A new PNL-led coalition would probably... 10th December 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Is there really a housing bubble forming in Russia? The success of the Russian government’s preferential mortgage scheme this year has prompted concerns that a bubble might be forming in Russia’s housing market, but we think this risk is some way off... 10th December 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland, Hungary and the EU budget: what’s at stake Failure of Poland and Hungary to reach an agreement with the EU over the veto of the bloc’s budget would have severe political and economic consequences if funds were withheld. Even if a deal is... 9th December 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update New forecasts in a world of COVID-19 vaccines The distribution of effective COVID-19 vaccines is likely to be relatively quick in Emerging Europe, paving the way for robust economic recoveries that will leave economies much closer to their pre... 1st December 2020 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CBRT steps up to the plate The decision by Turkey’s central bank to hike its one-week repo rate by 475bp, to 15.00%, and pledge to provide all funding through this facility appears to have done enough to convince investors that... 19th November 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Easing inflation offers room for MNB to lower rates Hungary’s central bank left its key interest rates unchanged today but the recent appreciation of the forint and signs that disinflationary forces have picked up has given the central bank scope to... 17th November 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What more can policymakers do? The recent tightening of virus containment measures across the region will push back the economic recovery well into 2021 and means that policy support will need to be stepped up before, as seems... 12th November 2020 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Erdogan hints at orthodox shift, up to CBRT to deliver President Erdogan’s latest comments suggest that the recent changes in Turkey’s economic management team may herald a shift back to orthodox policymaking. If these developments are backed up by a... 12th November 2020 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Make or break time for Turkey The sacking of Turkey’s central bank governor, as well as the (possible) departure of Finance Minister and President Erdogan’s son-in-law Berat Albayrak, has prompted a rally in local financial... 9th November 2020 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update NBP holds fire as restrictions are tightened in Poland Poland’s central bank left its policy rate on hold at 0.10% at today’s MPC meeting and opted to reinforce its commitment to its asset purchase programme rather than announce new unconventional... 6th November 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Lockdown not enough for CNB to cut interest rates The Czech National Bank (CNB) kept interest rates on hold at today’s MPC meeting and, despite its downbeat view on the economic outlook, gave no hint that monetary policy would be loosened further. We... 5th November 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Pressure builds on CBRT, currency crisis fears grow The Turkish lira has continued to fall sharply over the past couple of days and pressure is mounting on the central bank (CBRT) to deliver aggressive policy rate hikes at the MPC meeting later this... 3rd November 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia, Turkey, and the implications of the US election A Biden presidency would probably result in a tougher US foreign policy stance against both Russia and Turkey, paving the way for a further deterioration in relations, an increased risk of tighter... 30th October 2020 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Putting the Turkish lira’s fall into context The Turkish lira has fallen sharply in recent days amid concerns about the central bank’s decision making, rising geopolitical tensions, and the backdrop of a dire external position. The experience... 28th October 2020 · 6 mins read
