Emerging Europe Economics Update CBRT steps up to the plate The decision by Turkey’s central bank to hike its one-week repo rate by 475bp, to 15.00%, and pledge to provide all funding through this facility appears to have done enough to convince investors that... 19th November 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Easing inflation offers room for MNB to lower rates Hungary’s central bank left its key interest rates unchanged today but the recent appreciation of the forint and signs that disinflationary forces have picked up has given the central bank scope to... 17th November 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What more can policymakers do? The recent tightening of virus containment measures across the region will push back the economic recovery well into 2021 and means that policy support will need to be stepped up before, as seems... 12th November 2020 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Erdogan hints at orthodox shift, up to CBRT to deliver President Erdogan’s latest comments suggest that the recent changes in Turkey’s economic management team may herald a shift back to orthodox policymaking. If these developments are backed up by a... 12th November 2020 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Make or break time for Turkey The sacking of Turkey’s central bank governor, as well as the (possible) departure of Finance Minister and President Erdogan’s son-in-law Berat Albayrak, has prompted a rally in local financial... 9th November 2020 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update NBP holds fire as restrictions are tightened in Poland Poland’s central bank left its policy rate on hold at 0.10% at today’s MPC meeting and opted to reinforce its commitment to its asset purchase programme rather than announce new unconventional... 6th November 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Lockdown not enough for CNB to cut interest rates The Czech National Bank (CNB) kept interest rates on hold at today’s MPC meeting and, despite its downbeat view on the economic outlook, gave no hint that monetary policy would be loosened further. We... 5th November 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Pressure builds on CBRT, currency crisis fears grow The Turkish lira has continued to fall sharply over the past couple of days and pressure is mounting on the central bank (CBRT) to deliver aggressive policy rate hikes at the MPC meeting later this... 3rd November 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia, Turkey, and the implications of the US election A Biden presidency would probably result in a tougher US foreign policy stance against both Russia and Turkey, paving the way for a further deterioration in relations, an increased risk of tighter... 30th October 2020 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Putting the Turkish lira’s fall into context The Turkish lira has fallen sharply in recent days amid concerns about the central bank’s decision making, rising geopolitical tensions, and the backdrop of a dire external position. The experience... 28th October 2020 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s easing cycle will resume before long The decision by Russia’s central bank to leave its policy rate at 4.25% today suggests that inflationary concerns are preventing further easing for now. But the communications reinforce our view that... 23rd October 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CBRT’s ‘corridor’ tweaks disappoint Turkey’s central bank (CBRT) left its benchmark one-week repo rate unchanged at 10.25% today but adjusted its other policy rates to give it more scope to tighten monetary conditions via the ‘corridor’... 22nd October 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Faltering reform drive clouds Ukraine outlook The coronavirus crisis has already dealt a heavy blow to the Ukrainian economy and the risks to the outlook are growing: recent challenges to the independence of the central bank and anti-corruption... 14th October 2020 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Second waves will stall the near-term recovery The speed and scale of the rise in coronavirus infections across Emerging Europe has prompted a response from the authorities, but policymakers are likely to turn to much broader and tighter... 12th October 2020 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey and the effects of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict The conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan in the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh has created yet another schism in Turkey’s relations with the US, the EU and Russia. It may only take a misstep... 8th October 2020 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Taking stock of Russia’s coronavirus outbreak The surge in coronavirus cases in Russia looks set to trigger tighter restrictions in the coming months. But we doubt that policymakers will re-introduce a full lockdown. After all, it would be... 6th October 2020 · 3 mins read
