Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE: Robust labour markets bode well for the recovery Labour markets across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) have held up well since the start of the pandemic and we think this will continue over the next few years, which will support recoveries across... 24th February 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CBRT holds and steps up its rhetoric on inflation fight Turkey’s central bank left its policy rate unchanged at 17.00% at today’s MPC meeting and the hawkish tone in the statement, including a commitment to bring inflation back to the 5% target, supports... 18th February 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey’s shift to orthodoxy and the impact so far The shift in policymaking at Turkey’s central bank has supported a rally in local financial markets over the past few months and we think this has further to run. We now expect the Turkish lira to end... 17th February 2021 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hawkish CBR closes the door on further easing Russia’s central bank (CBR) left its key policy rate on hold at 4.25% today and the hawkish message about pro-inflationary risks means that there is no room for further easing. The CBR set the... 12th February 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary: rate cuts are in view Stubbornly high inflation and concerns about a weaker exchange rate mean that Hungary’s central bank (MNB) will keep its powder dry in the next few months. But we think that inflation will ease over... 5th February 2021 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Taking stock of the protests in Russia The waves of protests that have taken place across Russia in recent weeks pose the biggest challenge to President Putin in close to a decade and have put a risk premium on the ruble. The government is... 4th February 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CBRT holds fire amid lira rally, faltering economy Turkey’s central bank left its benchmark one-week repo rate unchanged at 17.00% at today’s MPC meeting as concerns about the faltering economic recovery took priority. But the hawkish tone on... 21st January 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Vaccination programmes begin, but hurdles remain The rollout of COVID-19 vaccines has slowly picked up across the region and we think governments will ease most restrictions by the middle of this year. But there is a clear risk that vaccine rollout... 20th January 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What next for the Turkish lira? The shift towards orthodox policymaking at Turkey’s central bank has supported a rally in the lira and, so long as the policy shift sticks (as seems increasingly likely) and the external environment... 12th January 2021 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update NBP to cut interest rates, strengthen FX intervention The Polish central bank’s (NBP’s) concerns about the strength of the zloty are likely to prompt it to intervene more aggressively in the FX market and deliver a 10bp interest rate cut, to 0.00%, most... 6th January 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CBR closing the door on its easing cycle The central bank of Russia (CBR) left its key policy rate unchanged at 4.25% as expected today but the accompanying communications delivered a clear hawkish shift. With headline inflation likely to... 18th December 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Four key developments to focus on in 2021 2020 has been a year full of surprises and in this Update we outline key areas to watch next year. Early vaccine distribution will pave the way for a rapid economic recovery, but disinflation forces... 15th December 2020 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romania’s election to pave way for fiscal conservatism Parliamentary elections in Romania that took place on Sunday look set to result in the incumbent centre-right PNL party forming a new coalition government. A new PNL-led coalition would probably... 10th December 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Is there really a housing bubble forming in Russia? The success of the Russian government’s preferential mortgage scheme this year has prompted concerns that a bubble might be forming in Russia’s housing market, but we think this risk is some way off... 10th December 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland, Hungary and the EU budget: what’s at stake Failure of Poland and Hungary to reach an agreement with the EU over the veto of the bloc’s budget would have severe political and economic consequences if funds were withheld. Even if a deal is... 9th December 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update New forecasts in a world of COVID-19 vaccines The distribution of effective COVID-19 vaccines is likely to be relatively quick in Emerging Europe, paving the way for robust economic recoveries that will leave economies much closer to their pre... 1st December 2020 · 6 mins read
