Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary: a short, sharp tightening cycle takes hold Hungary’s central bank (MNB) raised interest rates by 30bp today and with inflation set to remain above the MNB’s 4% upper tolerance level well into 2022, we expect an additional 60bp of tightening at... 22nd June 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland: Hawks to remain in the minority … for now While policymakers in Hungary and Czechia look set to lift interest rates from their pandemic lows later this week, we doubt that Poland’s central bank will follow suit this year. That said, with... 21st June 2021 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CBRT still treading cautiously The statement accompanying today’s decision by the Turkish central bank (CBRT) to leave its policy rate at 19.00% suggests that policymakers are (for now) standing up to political pressure to lower... 17th June 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Gas sector expansion to boost the Israeli Shekel A further expansion of gas production is likely to boost Israel’s current account surplus by an additional 0.4% of GDP per annum by 2025. This will put upwards pressure on the real exchange rate, but... 16th June 2021 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: consumer spending recovery has further to run Russian household spending looks set to rebound strongly this year as “excess” savings are drawn down, credit continues to expand, government support boosts incomes, and the labour market recovers... 15th June 2021 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: further rate hikes to tame inflation pressures Russia’s central bank (CBR) raised its policy rate by another 50bp, to 5.50%, at today’s meeting and the accompanying communications delivered a much more hawkish tone about inflation risks and the... 11th June 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update We now forecast major CEE currencies to outperform the euro We now expect interest rates to rise across Central and Eastern Europe in the coming years and for all the major currencies to strengthen against the euro, with the Czech koruna and Polish zloty... 10th June 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update The outlook remains bright for CEE exports While the composition of Central and Eastern European (CEE) exports is set to change over the coming quarters as some of the effects of the pandemic unwind, we forecast that export growth will remain... 10th June 2021 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romania: leading the CEE recovery in 2021 The strength of Romania’s economy in Q1 and the positive outlook for growth over the coming quarters means that we now expect GDP to expand by 6.8% this year (compared to 4.8% previously). 8th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE: inflation a growing risk as economies re-open Price pressures in Central Europe are building from a broad range of sources and, while most of these are likely to be temporary, the issue is that countries were experiencing stubbornly high... 2nd June 2021 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland and Hungary Q1 outperformance to continue The breakdown of Q1 GDP data showed that strong domestic demand supported expansions in Hungary and Poland, despite severe virus waves, whereas another fall in household spending held back Czechia’s... 1st June 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Israel and the risks to our macro forecasts The announcement of a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas removes one of the key uncertainties about the outlook for Israel’s economy and we maintain our forecast for a rapid recovery in GDP to take... 21st May 2021 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Assessing the macro implications of the “Polish Deal” The “Polish Deal” outlined by the ruling Law and Justice party over the weekend strengthens the shift in policy since 2015 towards higher social welfare spending and support for families. Fiscal... 17th May 2021 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Taking stock of Turkey’s economic recovery Turkey’s government has lifted a three-week national lockdown today and this should pave the way for a recovery over the coming months. But the hit to activity during the lockdown means that the... 17th May 2021 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update The latest on the virus and vaccines The sharp fall in virus cases and increase in the rate of vaccinations since March means that a sustained economic recovery in Central and Eastern Europe looks set to begin over the coming months. But... 12th May 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CNB makes a hawkish U-turn The Czech National Bank (CNB) left its two-week repo rate on hold at 0.25% today and backtracked on its recent dovish guidance about the timing of policy tightening. We expect a first 25bp interest... 6th May 2021 · 2 mins read
