Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: further rate hikes to tame inflation pressures Russia’s central bank (CBR) raised its policy rate by another 50bp, to 5.50%, at today’s meeting and the accompanying communications delivered a much more hawkish tone about inflation risks and the... 11th June 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update We now forecast major CEE currencies to outperform the euro We now expect interest rates to rise across Central and Eastern Europe in the coming years and for all the major currencies to strengthen against the euro, with the Czech koruna and Polish zloty... 10th June 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update The outlook remains bright for CEE exports While the composition of Central and Eastern European (CEE) exports is set to change over the coming quarters as some of the effects of the pandemic unwind, we forecast that export growth will remain... 10th June 2021 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romania: leading the CEE recovery in 2021 The strength of Romania’s economy in Q1 and the positive outlook for growth over the coming quarters means that we now expect GDP to expand by 6.8% this year (compared to 4.8% previously). 8th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE: inflation a growing risk as economies re-open Price pressures in Central Europe are building from a broad range of sources and, while most of these are likely to be temporary, the issue is that countries were experiencing stubbornly high... 2nd June 2021 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland and Hungary Q1 outperformance to continue The breakdown of Q1 GDP data showed that strong domestic demand supported expansions in Hungary and Poland, despite severe virus waves, whereas another fall in household spending held back Czechia’s... 1st June 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Israel and the risks to our macro forecasts The announcement of a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas removes one of the key uncertainties about the outlook for Israel’s economy and we maintain our forecast for a rapid recovery in GDP to take... 21st May 2021 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Assessing the macro implications of the “Polish Deal” The “Polish Deal” outlined by the ruling Law and Justice party over the weekend strengthens the shift in policy since 2015 towards higher social welfare spending and support for families. Fiscal... 17th May 2021 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Taking stock of Turkey’s economic recovery Turkey’s government has lifted a three-week national lockdown today and this should pave the way for a recovery over the coming months. But the hit to activity during the lockdown means that the... 17th May 2021 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update The latest on the virus and vaccines The sharp fall in virus cases and increase in the rate of vaccinations since March means that a sustained economic recovery in Central and Eastern Europe looks set to begin over the coming months. But... 12th May 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CNB makes a hawkish U-turn The Czech National Bank (CNB) left its two-week repo rate on hold at 0.25% today and backtracked on its recent dovish guidance about the timing of policy tightening. We expect a first 25bp interest... 6th May 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Israel’s recovery showing early signs of labour shortages The re-opening of Israel’s economy since March has driven a sharp tightening of labour market conditions and a growing share of firms are reporting labour shortages. This appears to be concentrated in... 6th May 2021 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CBRT eyeing up an easing cycle Turkey’s central bank didn’t spring any surprises and left its one-week repo rate on hold at 19.00% today and, while the accompanying statement maintained a hawkish tone, policymakers left the door... 6th May 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CBR signals further tightening to tackle inflation Russia’s central bank (CBR) hiked its policy rate by 50bp, to 5.00%, at today’s meeting and the accompanying statement strengthened the central bank’s hawkish message about the need for additional... 23rd April 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update US-Russia escalation as sanctions target sovereign debt The decision by the US to impose sanctions on newly-issued Russian sovereign debt has caused a sell-off in the ruble and sovereign bonds today, but we think any further market fallout or the... 15th April 2021 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CBRT opening the door to rate cuts The decision by the Turkish central bank (CBRT) to leave its policy rate at 19.00% was accompanied by reassuring language that the MPC, under new governor Sahap Kavciouglu, aims to bring down... 15th April 2021 · 3 mins read
