Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Ind. Prod. (Jan.) & Czech CPI (Feb.) The 2.2% y/y fall in Turkish industrial production in January was distorted a little by base effects, but even so the data highlight the extent to which the economy is struggling. The consensus view... 9th March 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Feb.) Russian inflation continued to accelerate in February, rising to its fastest pace, at 16.7% y/y, in more than a decade. We think inflation is close to peaking, but the big picture is that it’s likely... 5th March 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey CPI (Feb.) The rise in Turkish inflation last month, to 7.5% y/y, was probably temporary and we think the headline rate should edge down over the coming months. But the bigger picture is that Turkish price... 3rd March 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Feb.) The most striking point from February’s batch of Emerging European manufacturing PMIs was the rebound in the Russian figure, which some have pinned on import substitution. However, our sense is that... 2nd March 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Feb.) February’s Economic Sentiment Indicators (ESIs) brought further evidence that most economies in Central and South Eastern Europe are weathering twin headwinds from Greece and Russia relatively well... 26th February 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Retail Sales, Investment & Ind. Prod. (Jan.) The release of January’s activity data for Russia was delayed by two hours today but when they finally arrived they brought further evidence that consumers are bearing the brunt of the economy’s... 18th February 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Consumer Prices (Jan.) The larger-than-expected drop in Polish inflation in January, to -1.3% y/y, should seal the deal on an interest rate cut at the next MPC meeting on 4 th March. 13th February 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Central & Eastern Europe GDP (Q4) Preliminary Q4 GDP data for Central and Eastern Europe show that regional growth slowed from 3.0% y/y in Q3 to 2.7% y/y in Q4, which is still pretty strong given the problems in Russia and some parts... 13th February 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Czech & Hungary Industrial Production (Dec.) Strong industrial production figures from both the Czech Republic and Hungary in December provide further evidence that Central Europe is weathering headwinds from the euro-zone relatively well. On... 6th February 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Jan.) Inflation in Russia jumped to a five-year high of 15.0% y/y last month, as the effects of the sharp fall in the ruble towards the end of last year led to a surge in import prices. The big rise in... 5th February 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey CPI (Jan.) The smaller-than-expected fall in Turkish inflation last month, to 7.2% y/y, means the central bank won’t hold an extraordinary meeting tomorrow to lower interest rates, but this is only likely to... 3rd February 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia GDP (2014) Preliminary annual 2014 Russian GDP data, which showed that the economy grew by 0.6% over the year as a whole, are consistent with a small year-on-year fall in GDP in the final quarter of last year... 30th January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Jan.) January’s Economic Sentiment Indicators dipped across most of Central and South Eastern Europe, but they were still strong and suggest that the region has continued to weather headwinds from Western... 29th January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Dec.) & anti-crisis measures The key point that stands out in December’s activity data for Russia is the sharp jump in retail sales growth. However, this reflects panic buying as the ruble collapsed at the end of last year. Hence... 28th January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland GDP (2014) The preliminary estimate of Polish annual 2014 GDP, which showed an expansion of 3.3% over the year as a whole, is consistent with a modest slowdown in economic growth from 3.3% y/y in Q3 to 3.0% y/y... 27th January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Polish Industrial Production (Dec.) The rebound in Polish industrial production growth, to 8.4% y/y, last month was flattered by working day effects, but even so, it provides an encouraging early sign that the economy is weathering... 21st January 2015 · 1 min read
