Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Curr. Acc. (Mar.) & Czech CPI (Apr.) Turkey’s higher-than-expected current account deficit figure for March provides further evidence that weak exports have almost entirely offset the benefit to the economy from lower oil prices. And the... 12th May 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Ind. Prod. (Mar.) & Hungary CPI (Apr.) The stronger-than-expected 4.7% y/y rise in Turkish industrial production in March provides much-needed good news for President Erdogan ahead of next month’s election. But even so, growth in industry... 8th May 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Czech & Hungary Industrial Production (Mar.) March’s industrial production data from the Czech Republic and Hungary show that both economies ended the first quarter on a strong note. Indeed, these data, put together with the latest retail sales... 7th May 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Apr.) The fall in Russian inflation last month, to 16.4% y/y, suggests that it has passed its peak. As the effects of last year’s fall in the ruble unwind, we expect inflation to ease gradually over the... 6th May 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Apr.) April’s raft of manufacturing PMIs in Emerging Europe, released today and yesterday, suggest that conditions in the Russian and Turkish industrial sectors improved a little at the start of the second... 5th May 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Apr.) The rise in April’s Economic Sentiment Indicators (ESIs) across most of Central and South Eastern Europe was encouraging, particularly in light of the drop in the corresponding figure for the euro... 29th April 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Polish Ind. Production & Retail Sales (Mar.) The raft of strong Polish activity data for March was flattered by calendar effects but, even so, the economy clearly ended the first quarter of the year on a strong note. All in all, it looks like... 20th April 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Retail Sales, Investment & Ind. Prod. (Mar.) Today’s raft of activity data for March is consistent with Russia’s economy having contracted by around 3% y/y in the first quarter of this year. Although financial markets have rallied over the past... 17th April 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Czech CPI (Mar.) The small rise in Czech inflation last month, to 0.2% y/y, slightly reduces the probability that the National Bank will ease monetary conditions further at next month’s MPC meeting. Nonetheless, with... 9th April 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Mar.) March’s manufacturing PMIs in Emerging Europe were something of a mixed bag, with the figures providing further evidence that the Turkish and Russian economies weakened, although in the latter... 2nd April 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey GDP (Q4) The Turkish economy grew by a stronger-than-expected 2.6% y/y in Q4, driven by an uptick in consumer spending. But more timely activity data suggest that this improvement was short-lived, with growth... 1st April 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Mar.) The declines in March’s Economic Sentiment Indicators (ESIs) in Central and South Eastern Europe were disappointing, but the surveys still point to strong growth in the region. Looking at the... 31st March 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Retail Sales, Investment & Ind. Prod. (Feb.) Working day effects exacerbated the weakness in February’s activity data from Russia but don’t change the bigger picture of an economy sliding deeper into recession. Consumers are still bearing the... 19th March 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Polish Ind. Production & Retail Sales (Feb.) Poland’s industrial production and retail sales data for February suggest that the economy grew by a solid 3% y/y or so last month. As a result, even though the economy fell further into deflation... 18th March 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland CPI (Feb.) & Czech IP & Retail Sales (Jan.) The weaker-than-expected 1.6% y/y drop in Polish consumer prices last month was driven largely by an even steeper fall in petrol prices. Meanwhile, Czech activity data released today show that the... 13th March 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Current Account (Jan.) Turkey’s current account deficit narrowed substantially in January on the back of a fall in imports. But this wasn’t just due to lower energy imports – non-energy imports fell too. This adds to the... 11th March 2015 · 1 min read
