Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Retail Sales, Investment & Ind. Prod. (May) May’s activity data brought further bad news for the Russian economy, with the slump in industry and fixed investment deepening. All in all, our GDP Tracker suggests that output may have contracted by... 18th June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Polish Ind. Production, Retail Sales & Construction (May) Polish activity data for May were a mixed bag, with strengthening consumer spending broadly offsetting weakness in industry. Overall, it looks like GDP may have grown by around 3.5% y/y, roughly in... 18th June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Consumer Prices (May) The sharper-than-expected fall in Polish consumer prices last month reinforces our view that the central bank will be under little pressure to raise interest rates any time soon. The market, which is... 15th June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Current Account (Apr.) Even though Turkey’s current account deficit narrowed in April, the bigger picture is that it remains large. And the composition of external financing is a key vulnerability, with foreign direct... 11th June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey GDP (Q1) We wouldn’t get carried away by the better-than-expected 2.3% y/y rise in Turkish GDP in Q1. This stronger outturn was caused by a sharp pick-up in consumer spending, which came at the cost of a lower... 10th June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Czech & Hungary CPI (May) Stronger-than-expected inflation figures for last month in both the Czech Republic and Hungary will remove any lingering concerns about deflation. However, large amounts of spare capacity will keep... 9th June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (May) The drop in Russian inflation to 15.8% y/y in May confirms that it has now passed its peak. We expect inflation to ease slowly over the next three to six months before falling sharply around the turn... 4th June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey CPI (May) & Hungary Retail Sales (Apr.) The rise in Turkish inflation in May, to 8.1% y/y, was driven by a pick-up in core price pressures and provides further evidence that the economy’s inflation problems are escalating. Elsewhere... 3rd June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (May) May’s batch of manufacturing PMI data for Emerging Europe provided further evidence that the slump in the Russian economy has deepened in the second quarter. But the surveys finally brought some... 1st June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (May) May’s Economic Sentiment Indicators (ESIs) for Eastern Europe were a mixed bag, but overall the surveys still point to strong growth. There were few signs that the unfolding problems in Greece have... 28th May 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Retail Sales, Investment & Ind. Prod. (Apr.) Today’s raft of activity data suggests that the slump in Russia’s economy deepened further at the start of Q2. Output appears to have fallen by about 4.0% y/y in April. This should dash any remaining... 22nd May 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Polish Ind. Production, Retail Sales & Construction (Apr.) The weakness of last month’s Polish industrial production and retail sales figures was disappointing, but the impact on overall GDP growth seems to have been partially offset by an improvement in the... 20th May 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia GDP (Q1) The best that can be said about Q1 GDP data from Russia is that the economy has avoided outright collapse and is, instead, merely on the cusp of recession. Although financial market conditions have... 15th May 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Czech Republic & Poland GDP (Q1) First quarter GDP data from Poland and the Czech Republic add to evidence suggesting that, while most other EMs have slowed since the start of this year, those in Central Europe have strengthened. 15th May 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Consumer Prices (Apr.) April’s Polish CPI data, which showed that consumer prices fell by 1.1% y/y compared with a drop of 1.5% y/y in March, should ease lingering concerns that deflation might become entrenched. But today... 14th May 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Hungary, Romania & Slovakia GDP (Q1) The stronger-than-expected preliminary first quarter GDP estimates out of Hungary, Romania and Slovakia are particularly encouraging in light of the slowdown in the German economy. All in all, the... 13th May 2015 · 1 min read
