Emerging Europe Data Response Central & South Eastern Europe GDP (Q1 2016) The slowdown in GDP growth in Central and South Eastern Europe in Q1 supports our view that the very rapid rates of expansion seen at the end of last year weren’t likely to last. At a country level... 13th May 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Current Account (Mar.) The ongoing improvement in Turkey’s current account position in March was encouraging, but once again it was driven mainly by a falling energy import bill. Moreover, as last week’s sell-off in the... 10th May 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production (Mar.) Turkish industrial production data for March indicate that the economy grew at a faster pace in Q1 than in Q4, but that the economy lost momentum towards the end of the quarter. What’s more, the... 9th May 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey CPI (Apr.) The sharper-than-expected decline in Turkish inflation last month, to 6.6% y/y, supports our view that the central bank’s current easing cycle has further to run. However, the fall in the headline... 3rd May 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Apr.) This month’s Economic Sentiment Indicators (ESIs) in Emerging Europe were a mixed bag, providing early signs that Poland’s economy strengthened sharply at the start of Q2, while the other Central... 28th April 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Mar.) Russia’s activity data for March were weaker than in February, as expected, but the broad trend is still that the slump in the economy is easing. GDP probably contracted by around 2.0% y/y over Q1 as... 19th April 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Polish Ind. Production & Retail Sales (Mar.) The disappointing Polish activity data for March suggest that overall GDP growth may have slipped below 3% y/y. However, we don’t think this marks the start of a sharp slowdown; indeed, we expect... 19th April 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Current Account (Feb.) The decline in Turkey’s current account deficit in February was due almost entirely to lower oil prices, which reduced the energy import bill. We think the deficit is unlikely to improve from here on... 11th April 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Ind. Prod. (Feb.) & Hungary CPI (Mar.) The sharper-than-expected increase in Turkish industrial production in February provides some evidence that local firms are benefiting from a weaker lira. Elsewhere, the decline in Hungary’s inflation... 8th April 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey CPI (Mar.) The sharp decline in Turkish inflation in March, to a seven-month low of 7.5% y/y, was driven by a drop in food inflation, and masked the fact that core inflation remains extremely strong. Even so... 4th April 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia GDP (Q4) The release of Russian Q4 GDP data today provides further evidence that the worst of the recession is now behind us. And monthly activity data suggest that the slump in activity continued to ease in... 1st April 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Mar.) Manufacturing PMIs declined last month in most of Emerging Europe, but overall they continue to paint a picture of a Russian economy that is still struggling and of outperformance in Central Europe... 1st April 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey GDP (Q4) The whopping 5.7% y/y rise in Turkish GDP in Q4 was flattered by working day effects, but even taking this into account the economy remained extremely robust. The strong growth figures coming... 31st March 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Mar.) The rise in the Economic Sentiment Indicators (ESIs) in most Central and Eastern European economies this month was encouraging and suggests that growth in the region as a whole may turn out to be... 30th March 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Feb.) The improvement in last month’s Russian activity data was flattered by working day effects due to the leap year. But even so, the figures provide further evidence that the economy has passed the worst... 21st March 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland CPI (Feb.) The slightly weaker-than-expected Polish inflation figure for last month, of -0.8% y/y, may at the margin make interest rate cuts more likely. However, given the restrained comments from last week’s... 15th March 2016 · 1 min read
