Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey GDP (Q2) The sharper-than-expected slowdown in Turkish GDP growth in Q2, to 3.1% y/y, predates July’s coup attempt and we expect growth to be much weaker in the coming quarters. Indeed, the early signs suggest... 9th September 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production (Jul.) The collapse in Turkish industrial production in July provides a clear sign that the coup attempt caused severe disruptions to the economy. And leading indicators such as the manufacturing PMI suggest... 8th September 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Aug.) The fall in Russian inflation to 6.9% y/y in August, coming alongside last month’s drop in household inflation expectations, reinforces our view that the central bank will resume its easing cycle... 5th September 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey CPI (Aug.) The sharper-than-expected fall in Turkish inflation in August, to 8.0% y/y, is likely to be used as justification by the central bank for further modest interest rate cuts. Nonetheless, we remain of... 5th September 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Aug.) The latest batch of PMIs from Emerging Europe suggests that, in aggregate, the region’s manufacturing sector strengthened last month. But the surveys provide further evidence that Turkey’s economy has... 1st September 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Aug.) The declines in the Economic Sentiment Indicators this month in Central and Eastern Europe support our view that growth in these economies is likely to weaken in the coming quarters. But the strength... 30th August 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Jul.) The weak Polish activity data for July, which point to GDP growth slowing sharply to 2.5% y/y at the start of Q3, were distorted by working-day effects. Even so, the underlying trend seems to be one... 18th August 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Jul.) Russian activity data for July suggest that the economy weakened a touch at the start of Q3, but we still think it’s likely that the recovery will resume over the rest of the year. Indeed, there was... 17th August 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Czech GDP (Q2) The slightly stronger-than-expected Czech Q2 GDP growth figure, of 2.5% y/y, reinforces our view that, while the economy is likely to slow a little further in the coming quarters, the strength of... 16th August 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Central & South Eastern Europe GDP (Q2 2016) The surprisingly strong batch of Q2 GDP figures for Central and South Eastern Europe released today suggest that growth in the region as a whole picked up to a robust 3.7% y/y from 3.0% y/y in Q1. We... 12th August 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia GDP (Q2 2016) The -0.6% y/y fall in Russia GDP in Q2 is, by our estimates, consistent with a modest rise in output over the quarter. We expect a gradual recovery to continue over the coming quarters. 11th August 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia GDP (Q2 2016) The -0.6% y/y fall in Russia GDP in Q2 is, by our estimates, consistent with a modest rise in output over the quarter. We expect a gradual recovery to continue over the coming quarters. 11th August 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production (Jun.) The weaker-than-expected Turkish industrial production growth figure for June, of just 1.1% y/y, adds to the evidence that the economy had slowed sharply even before July’s coup attempt. 8th August 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Jul.) The larger-than-expected fall in Russian inflation to 7.2% y/y in July suggests that – barring an upside surprise in this month’s CPI figure – the central bank will resume its easing cycle at the next... 4th August 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey CPI (Jul.) The much sharper-than-expected rise in Turkish inflation in July, to 8.8% y/y, will make it difficult for the central bank to justify any further loosening of monetary conditions. The easing cycle had... 3rd August 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (July) July’s manufacturing PMIs point to a further slowdown in industrial production growth in Central Europe, to around 2% y/y, which could be an early sign of spillovers from the UK’s Brexit vote. However... 1st August 2016 · 1 min read
