Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Feb.) The weaker-than-anticipated batch of Polish activity figures for February confirmed our suspicion that January’s extremely strong data couldn’t be sustained. Nonetheless, the big picture is that the... 17th March 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland CPI (Feb.) The further rise in Polish inflation last month, to 2.2% y/y, was driven almost entirely by energy and food price movements, while core inflation remained subdued. Accordingly, today’s data are... 14th March 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Current Account (Jan.) A higher energy import bill caused Turkey’s current account deficit to widen even further in January, taking it to around 4.2% of GDP. As a result, the lira remains one of the most vulnerable EM... 13th March 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Czech CPI (Feb.) Last month’s stronger-than-expected rise in Czech headline inflation was driven entirely by higher food and fuel inflation and, on its own, is unlikely to be of too much concern to the National Bank’s... 9th March 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production (Jan.) Stronger-than-expected Turkish industrial production growth in January provides further evidence that the economic recovery from last year’s slump is underway. But even so, we think most analysts are... 8th March 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Feb.) The fall in Russian inflation, which reached a five-year low of 4.6% y/y last month, has further to run and we think the headline rate will reach the central bank’s target by mid-year. Falling... 7th March 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey CPI (Feb.) The jump in Turkish inflation last month, to 10.1%, probably marks the peak this year, but the headline rate will remain far above the central bank’s target. Despite the dire inflation outlook, the... 3rd March 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Feb.) Last month’s PMIs for Emerging Europe suggest that in aggregate, the region’s manufacturing sector weakened from January, but it remained strong. The surveys from Central Europe were robust and point... 1st March 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Feb.) In aggregate, February’s Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe were a little weaker than in January, but overall they add to the impression that the region’s economies made a... 27th February 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Jan.) The full complement of Russian activity data for January, released today, suggests that the economy probably grew by around 0.3% y/y at the start of this year, which appears to be in line with growth... 22nd February 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Jan.) The much stronger-than-expected batch of Polish activity figures for January was flattered by working-day effects, but overall the data suggest that the economy may have grown by as much as 3.5% y/y... 17th February 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Central & South Eastern Europe GDP (Q4 2016) Growth in Central and South Eastern Europe strengthened at the end of last year on the back of an acceleration in Poland and Romania. Nonetheless, we see little in today’s GDP data to change our view... 14th February 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland CPI (Jan.) The jump in Polish inflation last month, to 1.8% y/y, was driven almost entirely by energy and food price movements, while core inflation remained flat. Accordingly, we remain of the view that the... 13th February 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Czech CPI (Jan.) The further rise in Czech inflation last month, to 2.2% y/y, reinforces our view that the koruna cap will be removed in the coming months. We see the MPC meeting on 4th May as the most likely date for... 10th February 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production (Dec.) Weaker-than-expected growth in Turkish industrial production in December, of 1.3% y/y, supports our view that the recovery from Q3’s downturn will be sluggish. It looks like the economy may have grown... 8th February 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Jan.) The further fall in Russian inflation last month, to 5.0% y/y, supports our view that, despite the central bank’s recent hawkish rhetoric, interest rates will be lowered substantially this year. 6th February 2017 · 1 min read
