Emerging Europe Data Response Central & South Eastern Europe GDP (Q1 2017) The stronger-than-expected batch of Q1 GDP data from Central and South Eastern Europe means that risks to our above-consensus 2017 growth forecasts now lie to the upside. These figures also raise the... 16th May 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production (Mar.) Turkish industrial production growth in March was a little stronger than expected, but the 2.8% y/y expansion still paints a picture of a slow recovery from last year’s slump. 8th May 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Apr.) The further fall in Russian inflation last month – and in core inflation in particular – reinforces our view that the central bank’s easing cycle has much further to run. We expect another interest... 5th May 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey CPI (Apr.) The further rise in Turkish inflation in April, to 11.9% y/y, probably marks the peak for the headline rate, and it should slowly reverse course in the coming months. As things stand, our sense is... 3rd May 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Apr.) Last month’s PMIs for Emerging Europe suggest that manufacturing in Central Europe remained strong at the start of Q2, but highlight that the recoveries in Russia and Turkey are still fragile. 2nd May 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Apr.) The rise in the Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe this month suggests that regional growth was probably close to 4% y/y at the start of Q2. These figures support our above... 27th April 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Mar.) The extremely strong batch of Polish activity data for March suggests that the economy may have grown by as much as 4.5% y/y over Q1 as a whole, up from 2.7% y/y in Q4 of last year. This supports our... 20th April 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Mar.) The improvement in the Russian activity data for March confirmed that the slump shown in the February figures was a blip. That said, weakness earlier in the quarter means that year-on-year GDP growth... 18th April 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Curr. Acc. (Feb.) & Hungary CPI (Mar.) Turkey’s current account deficit remained wide in February, but there are some encouraging signs that the boost to competitiveness from the weak lira may already be having a positive effect. Elsewhere... 11th April 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Czech CPI (Mar.) & Turkey Ind. Production (Feb.) The further rise in Czech inflation (both headline and core) last month is, with the koruna cap now at an end, likely to shift attention to the timing of the first interest rate hike. For our part, we... 10th April 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Mar.) The further decline in Russian inflation last month, and in core inflation in particular, means another interest rate cut looks likely at the next central bank Board meeting later this month. As... 5th April 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Mar.) & Turkey CPI (Mar.) The sharp rise in Turkish inflation last month supports our view that, while the central bank’s tightening cycle has probably run its course, interest rates will stay very high. In better news, March... 3rd April 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia GDP (Q4 2016) The Russian economy’s return to positive year-on-year growth in Q4, of 0.3% y/y, was driven by stronger inventory investment and a shallower fall in consumer spending. These trends are likely to... 31st March 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey GDP (Q4) Turkish Q4 GDP growth came in at a much stronger-than-expected 3.5% y/y, and has prompted us to revise up our forecast for this year from 1.8% to 2.5%. However, in contrast to the consensus, we don’t... 31st March 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Mar.) March’s Economic Sentiment Indicators suggest that, in aggregate, growth in Central and Eastern Europe slowed a touch this month. However, regional growth over Q1 as a whole still appears to have been... 30th March 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Feb.) February’s weak batch of Russian activity data were distorted by working-day effects, and we think the underlying picture is still one of a gradual recovery. 21st March 2017 · 1 min read
