Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production (Jul.) A sharp pick-up in Turkish industrial production growth in July, which jumped to 14.5% y/y, was always on the cards given the comparison with July last year, when the manufacturing sector was... 8th September 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Aug.) Russian inflation fell to a post-communist low of 3.3% y/y in August and we expect the headline rate to remain below the central bank’s 4% target over our forecast horizon. We had thought the Bank... 5th September 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey CPI (Aug.) The jump in Turkish inflation last month to 10.7% y/y means that the interest rate cuts we had expected before the end of the year are looking less likely. That said, we still expect the headline... 5th September 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Aug.) Last month’s manufacturing PMIs for Central Europe suggest that economic growth has remained robust in Q3. That said, we think that the third quarter will mark a peak for growth across the region. 1st September 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Aug.) This month’s Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe suggest that regional growth has remained robust in Q3, at around 4.5% y/y, but also that growth is now peaking. 30th August 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Jul.) The raft of strong Polish activity data for July suggests that the economy grew by around 4.5% y/y at the start of the third quarter. That would be even faster than the rapid rate of expansion seen... 18th August 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Jul.) Russian activity data for July were a bit softer-than-expected, but overall they suggest that the economy continued to grow by over 2% y/y at the start of Q3. 17th August 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Central & South Eastern Europe GDP (Q2 2017) Today’s strong batch of Q2 GDP data from Central and South Eastern Europe support our above-consensus growth forecasts for this year as a whole. Looking ahead, GDP growth is likely to peak in Q3 in... 16th August 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia GDP (Q2 2017) Russia’s better-than-expected 2.5% y/y GDP growth recorded in Q2 supports our view that the recovery from the recent recession would surprise many on the upside. We have revised our forecasts, which... 11th August 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Czech CPI (Jul.) July’s stronger-than-expected Czech inflation data support our view that the National Bank’s monetary tightening cycle will be more aggressive than the markets are pricing in. While our central view... 9th August 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production (Jun.) Turkish industrial production data was a little weaker than expected in June, but the figures still suggest that GDP growth in Q2 was probably stronger than in the first quarter of the year. 8th August 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Jul.) The sharper-than-expected fall in Russian inflation last month means that the central bank, having paused its easing cycle last week, looks set to cut interest rates at next month’s Board meeting. 4th August 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey CPI (Jul.) The sharper-than-expected fall in Turkish inflation, to 9.8% y/y last month, from 10.9% y/y in June, is likely to make the central bank more confident that it can reverse the monetary tightening... 3rd August 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Jul.) Last month’s manufacturing PMIs for Emerging Europe suggest that the recovery in Russia’s economy continued at the start of Q3, but provided further evidence that growth in the rest of the region... 1st August 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Jul.) This month’s Economic Sentiment Indicators suggest that growth softened a touch in the major economies of Central and Eastern Europe at the start of Q3. But the surveys are still consistent with... 28th July 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Jun.) Russian activity data for June suggest that the economy grew by 1.5% y/y over Q2 as a whole. That would be the fastest pace of GDP growth since 2013 and supports our view that growth both this year... 19th July 2017 · 1 min read
