Emerging Europe Data Response Russia GDP (Q3) Russian GDP growth in Q3 was softer than expected, at 1.8% y/y, and we have revised down our growth forecast for 2017 as whole as a result (to 1.8%). However, we expect growth to pick up next year and... 13th November 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Czech CPI (Oct.) The rise in Czech inflation to a five-year high of 2.9% y/y in October was driven entirely by a sharp pick-up in food inflation, and by our estimates, core inflation eased a little. As a result, while... 9th November 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Oct.) The fall in Russian inflation to 2.7% y/y in October means another 25bp cut at the central bank’s Board meeting in December is highly likely. Inflation has probably reached a trough, but we expect the... 7th November 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey CPI (Oct.) The jump in Turkish inflation last month, to 11.9% y/y, was worryingly broad based. There are reasons to think that inflation will begin to fall significantly from December, but in the near-term... 3rd November 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Oct.) October’s manufacturing PMI for Turkey – which fell to a six-month low – supports our view that following an impressive Q3, growth will slow in Q4. Elsewhere in the region, the Czech PMI painted a... 1st November 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Oct.) This month’s Economic Sentiment Indicators suggest that GDP growth remained strong in the major economies of Central and Eastern Europe at the start of Q4. The surveys are consistent with growth... 30th October 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Sep.) Russian activity data for September suggest that GDP growth over Q3 as a whole probably came in at around 2.0% y/y, which would be a little weaker than in Q2 (2.5% y/y). But the economy remains in... 18th October 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (Sep.) The batch of Polish activity data for September, released today, suggests that the economy grew by around 4.8% y/y in Q3, which would be the best performance in six years. 18th October 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Czech CPI (Sep.) The rise in Czech inflation to a five-year high of 2.7% y/y in September supports our view that the next hike in the policy interest rate – taking it from 0.25% to 0.50% – will come at the CNB Board... 9th October 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Sep.) The drop in Russian inflation to a fresh low of 3.0% y/y in September means that another cut in interest rates is all but guaranteed at this month’s CBR Board meeting. The fact that core inflation... 5th October 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey CPI (Sep.) The jump in Turkish inflation, to 11.2% y/y last month, from 10.7% y/y in August, means that the interest rate cuts we had expected before the end of this year are looking less likely. We still think... 3rd October 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Sep.) Last month’s manufacturing PMIs for Emerging Europe painted a positive picture. The surveys suggest that economic growth accelerated further in Q3 in Central Europe and remained robust in Russia. Even... 2nd October 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Sep.) This month’s Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe suggest that regional GDP may have expanded by as much as 5% y/y in Q3. However, this probably marks the peak for growth and... 28th September 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Aug.) Russian activity data for August suggest that GDP growth may have eased a little in Q3, to around 2% y/y, from 2.5% y/y in Q2. But that would still be a reasonably strong pace of expansion, and it... 19th September 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (Aug.) The batch of strong Polish activity data for August suggests that the economy is on course to grow by an impressive 4.5% y/y in Q3, up from 3.9% y/y in Q2. However, this is likely to mark the peak and... 19th September 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey GDP (Q2) & Czech CPI (August) Turkey’s economy had a strong Q2 and growth is set to be even quicker in Q3. But that’s likely to mark the peak in the cycle and we think the economy will slow more abruptly than most expect in 2018... 11th September 2017 · 1 min read
