Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Jan.) January’s PMIs for Emerging Europe provide further evidence that the region’s economies made a strong start to the year. The surveys indicate that Russia’s economic recovery should resume over the... 1st February 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Jan.) January’s Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe suggest that growth in the region as a whole may have picked up even further at the start of this year, to about 5.5-5.8% y/y... 30th January 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland GDP (2017) The preliminary estimate of Polish annual 2017 GDP, which showed an expansion of 4.6% over the year as a whole, suggests that growth may have accelerated to as much as 5.4% y/y in Q4. This appears to... 30th January 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Dec.) December’s activity data for Russia suggest that GDP growth over Q4 as a whole may have slowed to a disappointing 1.0% y/y, from 1.8% y/y in Q3. But conditions improved right at the end of last year... 25th January 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (Dec.) The Polish activity figures for December were weaker than November’s data, but most of that can be explained by working-day effects. Our Tracker suggests that the economy grew by a strong 4.8% y/y or... 19th January 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Dec.) December’s Economic Sentiment Indicators suggest that the pace of GDP growth remained extremely strong in the major economies of Central and Eastern Europe in Q4, at around 5.0-5.5% y/y. 8th January 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey CPI (Dec.) The decline in Turkish inflation in December, to 11.9% y/y, from 13.0% y/y in November, will take some pressure off the central bank to follow up last month’s interest rate hike with further... 3rd January 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Dec.) December’s PMIs for Emerging Europe suggest that manufacturing sectors across most of the region ended 2017 on a strong note. Indeed, the surveys for Central Europe and Turkey are consistent with... 2nd January 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia & Poland Activity Data (Nov.) The disappointing batch of Russian activity data for November suggests that GDP growth may be on course to slow to 1.0-1.5% y/y in Q4. And the risks to our above-consensus growth forecast for 2018, of... 19th December 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey GDP (Q3) The sharp pick-up in Turkish GDP growth in Q3, to a six-year high of 11.1% y/y, was flattered by the comparison with Q3 of last year, when output was disrupted by the coup attempt. The annual rate of... 11th December 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Nov.) The decline in Russian inflation to just 2.5% y/y last month means the central bank is now all but certain to continue its easing cycle next week. We expect a 25bp cut to 8.00%. Inflation has probably... 5th December 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey CPI (Nov.) The jump in Turkish inflation to a fourteen-year high of 13.0% y/y in November, from 11.9% y/y in October, will undoubtedly alarm policymakers at the central bank. With the government seemingly... 4th December 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Nov.) Last month’s manufacturing PMIs suggest that GDP growth has remained strong in Central Europe in Q4, probably at around 4.5-5.0% y/y. The pick-up in Russia’s PMI was also encouraging in light of the... 1st December 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Nov.) November’s Economic Sentiment Indicators suggest that the pace of economic growth has remained strong in the major economies of Central and Eastern Europe in Q4. The surveys are consistent with growth... 29th November 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia & Poland Activity Data (Oct.) Russia’s activity data for October suggest that growth remained soft at the start of Q4, at around 1.7% y/y. October data for Poland (also released today) were much stronger and suggest that GDP... 20th November 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Central & Eastern Europe GDP (Q3 2017) Third quarter GDP data for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) showed that growth in the region as a whole picked up to a nine-year high of 5.3% y/y. We still think growth will slow in 2018, but today’s... 14th November 2017 · 1 min read
