Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Mar.) The rise in Russian inflation, to 2.4% y/y, last month confirms that the headline rate has passed its trough and we expect it to drift up over the rest of the year as food inflation strengthens. But... 6th April 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey CPI (Mar.) & Manufacturing PMIs (Mar.) Today’s weaker Turkish inflation reading and soft manufacturing PMI (which provided the first signs of a slowdown in the real economy) has reduced the likelihood that the MPC will tighten monetary... 3rd April 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey GDP (Q4 2017) Today’s GDP figures from Turkey showed that growth was a faster-than-expected 7.3% y/y in Q4 of last year. Coming alongside high inflation, this will heighten fears that the economy is overheating. 29th March 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Mar.) Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) dipped in most countries this month but still suggest that GDP growth in the region has remained strong at around 5% y/y in Q1. That... 27th March 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Feb.) Russian activity figures for February were generally a bit weaker than expected, but even so it looks like the economy is on course to grow by about 1.5-1.8% y/y in Q1, up from about 1.0% y/y in Q4... 21st March 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (Feb.) The batch of Polish activity data for February suggests that the economy continued to expand at a rapid pace in Q1 of close to 5% y/y – broadly in line with Q4’s outturn. Rapid wage growth and looser... 21st March 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland CPI (Feb.) The weaker-than-expected Polish inflation figure for February, of 1.4% y/y, means that the MPC is likely to stick to its dovish tone in the very near-term. However, we still think that price pressures... 15th March 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Feb.) Russian inflation figures for February confirmed that underlying price pressures remain weak and another cut in the central bank’s policy interest rate at the next Board meeting later this month is... 6th March 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey CPI (Feb.) The slightly stronger-than-expected Turkish inflation data for February, of 10.3% y/y, means the MPC is likely to stick to its hawkish tone at Wednesday’s MPC meeting. Inflation should begin to edge... 5th March 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Feb.) Last month’s manufacturing PMIs for Emerging Europe fell across the region, but are still consistent with strong industrial activity in Central Europe. And while the sharp drop in the Russian survey... 1st March 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Feb.) February’s Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) suggest that growth in the region as a whole may strengthen to more than 5.5% y/y in Q1. The Hungarian and Polish... 27th February 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Jan.) Russian activity data for January show that, having slowed over the second half of last year, the economy has now turned the corner. It looks like growth picked up to about 1.3% y/y last month from 1... 19th February 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Central & Eastern Europe GDP (Q4 2017) GDP data for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) showed that growth in the region as a whole expanded by 4.9% y/y in Q4. While this is still very strong by recent standards, it’s weaker than Q3’s outturn... 14th February 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Jan.) The decline in Russian inflation to just 2.2% y/y last month, coming alongside weakness in the latest hard activity data and dovish comments from central bank governor Elvira Nabiullina, means we now... 7th February 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey CPI (Jan.) Turkish inflation fell to a lower-than-expected 10.3% y/y last month, from 11.9% y/y in December, and is likely to edge down further over the rest of this year. Even so, with the headline rate likely... 5th February 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia GDP (2017) Russian annual GDP data for 2017, which showed that the economy expanded by 1.5% over the year as a whole, are consistent with a slowdown in growth to 1.0% y/y in Q4, from 1.8% y/y in Q3. However, we... 1st February 2018 · 1 min read
